It shouldn’t even be close.
Tuesday’s special elections to replace Florida’s Republican former U.S. Reps. Matt Gaetz and Michael Waltz will be held in two of the state’s GOP strongholds and President Donald Trump‘s pollster did a survey that showed the Democratic candidate up by only 3 points over his Republican rival.
Trump won the same district by 30 percentage points in the 2024 presidential election.
“A March survey from the Trump campaign’s pollster (Tony Fabrizio) found teacher Josh Weil (D) leading State Rep. Randy Fine (R) in Florida’s 6th Congressional District, 44%-41%. Fine was up 12 pts in Feb.,” Zac Weisz, of GZERO Media, posted to X.
Control of the U.S. House is not at stake, but the outcome of the special elections could give congressional Republicans some breathing room in the narrowly divided chamber. Republicans hold 218 seats, the minimum needed for a majority in a fully seated House. Democrats hold 213 seats, with two additional vacant seats most recently held by Democratic lawmakers.
The 6th Congressional District sits on the Atlantic Coast and includes Daytona Beach. Republican presidential candidates have carried all six counties in the district for the last four presidential elections. The Republican winning streak in some of the counties stretches back for decades before that. Lake County, for instance, hasn’t supported a Democrat for president since Franklin Roosevelt in 1944.
Trump carried the district in 2024 with 65% of the vote. Waltz received about 67% of the vote in his final House reelection bid. Trump and Waltz performed best in Putnam County, where they both received about 74% of the vote. Their worst county in comparison was Volusia, where Trump received 58% and Waltz received about 60%. Waltz slightly outperformed Trump in every county in the district.
Democrats have poured millions of dollars into the two special elections in Florida (In the 1st Congressional District, Republican Jimmy Patronis and Democrat Gay Valimont are running to replace Gaetz.)
Republicans, including Trump, have noticed too, and are looking to head off an embarrassing outcome. The president joined both Republican candidates by telephone on separate tele-town halls Thursday to help get out the vote in the “all-important” elections.
Winning both races next Tuesday would be colossal for a Democratic Party that has struggled to settle on a way to push back during the early days of the second Trump administration. Winning either — or even narrowing the margin in districts the president won by more than 30 points less than five months ago — could help alleviate the panic that set in among party leaders after Republicans swept both houses of Congress and the presidency in November.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
