U.S. Rep. Don Bacon keeps outperforming the ‘blue dot’ in Nebraska’s 2nd District

U.S. Rep. Don Bacon, R-Neb., addresses supporters outside of his west Omaha campaign office after claiming victory. (Aaron Sanderford/Nebraska Examiner)

OMAHA — Republican U.S. Rep. Don Bacon in 2024 defied the “blue dot” for a second straight presidential election. He won Nebraska’s Omaha-based 2nd Congressional District in another year in which the district’s voters backed a Democrat over former President Donald Trump.

National results show how unusual that is, based on district-level House and presidential results compiled by elections data expert Drew Savicki and former Democratic pollster Adam Carlson. Carlson shared his overperformance rankings last week.

With some states still counting, Carlson’s tally showed that Bacon outperformed his party’s presidential candidate by 6.46 percentage points. That was the largest of any 2024 GOP candidate in the 43 House races that Cook Political Report identified as a toss-up or leaning toward one party.

Carlson’s overperformance measurement essentially combines the percentage margins from the presidential race and local House races in each congressional district to show performance above or below the district’s vote in the presidential race.

In Nebraska’s 2nd District, which Cook rated this year as a Democratic lean, but historically tilts slightly Republican downballot, Bacon beat Democratic State Sen. Tony Vargas by 1.8 points. Vice President Kamala Harris beat Trump by 4.66 points, which adds up to the 6.46-point overperformance score. 

Bacon credits campaign discipline

Bacon said he was proud that his bid overcame Trump’s lack of campaign spending on 2nd District political ads, a primary election centered on GOP loyalty to Trump, party division about incumbents and a nonpartisan challenger’s closer-than-expected first-time U.S. Senate bid.

He credited his campaign staff for executing a “disciplined message” about getting results in Congress. He emphasized how he works with people from both parties and said his team knocked on tens of thousands of doors. He said that is how they reached persuadable voters.

“We knew we needed some crossover voters,” he said. “If Trump was down 10, as some polls showed, we knew it would be tough. Our internals showed Trump down 6 and me in a dead heat two weeks out. Then, the last two weeks, we thought we’d win.”

Bacon’s overperformance score was not the best overall. At least eight Democratic House candidates outpaced Harris by more than Bacon outpaced Trump. And other Republicans could post a better number once counting ends in California, New York and Pennsylvania.

Nationally, Democratic House candidates outperformed Harris in more competitive districts than Republicans outperformed Trump. At least a dozen Democrats won in districts Trump won or led by late last week. That’s because Trump performed better than Harris in swing states.

But Bacon was the first House Republican to notch a conclusive win in a district backing Harris, said Erin Covey, Cook Political Report’s editor for House races. Bacon will likely be joined in that feat by GOP Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick of Pennsylvania and up to three others.

Bacon was also the only GOP winner so far among 16 GOP-held districts that President Joe Biden carried in 2020 and that backed Harris, Covey said. In neighboring Iowa, the two swing district House Republicans — Mariannette Miller-Meeks and Zach Nunn — underperformed Trump although they still won their races narrowly.

“It’s fair to say that it’s becoming more and more unusual,” Covey said of Bacon representing a Harris-won district. “I believe that after the 2020 presidential election … the number of people in the same position as Bacon has shrunk.” 

Covey said Bacon was also helped by voter self-sorting by geography — people moving where neighbors align with their political views — and state gerrymandering, along with redistricting moves like swapping a large portion of the 2nd District’s purpling Sarpy County suburbs for redder rural Saunders County.

Democrats can win 2nd District

The 2nd District has elected a Republican to Congress in all but a dozen years since 1970. Democrats last won the seat in 2014, when Brad Ashford beat Republican U.S. Rep. Lee Terry. Bacon defeated Ashford in 2016 — but later secured the endorsement of Ashford’s widow, Ann.

District-level presidential results matter more in Nebraska, because Nebraska and Maine award a single Electoral College vote to the winner of the popular vote for president in each of its congressional districts, in addition to giving two votes to the statewide winner.

That leads to more spending in the districts by the top presidential campaigns. This year, Trump’s team tried and failed to change the rules to push the state to winner-take-all. Harris’ team and her backers outspent Trump’s more than 20 to 1 on campaign advertising in the 2nd District.

But Bacon had help swimming against the presidential tide. His campaign and outside groups spent about $18 million on his behalf, according to OpenSecrets.org, which tracks federal campaign spending. Vargas had about $14.2 million spent on his behalf. 

That was unusual nationally in a year when both Harris and efforts backing congressional Democrats fared better than Republicans in fundraising, Covey said. The 2nd District was one of the few competitive races nationally where the GOP outspent Democrats, she said, particularly on the super PAC side. 

District fit matters

Bacon’s campaign and a number of political observers contacted say part of the incumbent’s  “secret sauce” was his Air Force experience, including commanding the 55th Wing at Offutt Air Force Base. One consultant described him as “designed in a lab” to fit a center-right district.

Jessica Flanagain, one of the state’s top GOP consultants, described Bacon as “a common-sense conservative” who “gets things done.” She said his office is well-run. It serves constituents efficiently. And Bacon never rests. He attends events everywhere.

“What he has that you can’t quantify in a political report is a genuine likability and a very uncommon authenticity,” Flanagain said. “Don Bacon is always going to tell you straight to your face what he believes and why he believes it.”

Democrat Kara Eastman, who lost to Bacon in 2018 and 2020, said Bacon has an uncanny ability to get people to support him who wouldn’t typically support a Republican. She remembers him as a candidate who was more conservative than his district.

She pointed to endorsements from Democrats like Ann Ashford, who ran for Bacon’s seat in 2020, and former Husker Johnny Rodgers as effective in signaling to centrist Democrats that it’s OK not to change. Eastman said he’s probably still that conservative, but she said he has shifted how he talks and sometimes how he votes.

“When we started in 2017-18, he was one of the far right,” Eastman said. “Now the headlines are ‘Moderate Don Bacon wins.’ I believe our campaign pushed him…. Bacon has become one of the most moderate members of Congress. I’m proud of that.”

Trump relationship complicated

Covey said the “definition of moderate has evolved, particularly on the Republican side.” She said members of Congress are now considered moderate in the GOP if they are willing to criticize Trump, which Bacon is, though he has also endorsed Trump three times.

Trump and his political team at one point actively tried to recruit a primary challenger for Bacon, but in the end Trump endorsed him. Trump was particularly upset about Bacon’s vote in support of the bipartisan infrastructure bill — and about some of Bacon’s comments after Jan. 6, 2021.

Nebraska Democratic Party Chair Jane Kleeb said the results show that Bacon has gotten very good at persuading people that he is moderate, when he is not. She said he is more conservative than a slightly right-leaning district.

”He is not who he says he is,” Kleeb said.

Randall Adkins, a political scientist at the University of Nebraska at Omaha, attributes much of Bacon’s resiliency to the advantages of incumbency. Since World War II, Adkins said, research shows about 90% of congressional incumbents get re-elected.

“The other side of it is, I do think that Bacon has done what he needs to do to try to stay in touch with the district,” Adkins said. “He doesn’t really deviate, except probably on abortion. He’s very pro-life. He’s not an extremist. … He’s sort of figured out.”

Nebraska House incumbents popular

J. Miles Coleman of The Center for Politics at the University of Virginia said Nebraskans seem to like their three House GOP incumbents. Each ran ahead of Trump, Bacon most of all. They also outpaced Nebraska’s GOP Senate incumbents in their districts.

“They seem to be popular in their seats,” Coleman said.

Coleman said Bacon did a little better than Trump in Douglas County, particularly in an area south of Dodge Street but north of Ralston. That includes Regency, a wealthier area that is home to some of the state’s most moderate Republicans and Democrats.

One of the few areas where Bacon trailed Trump was in South Omaha, Vargas’ home district.

Complaints about ad accuracy

Vargas’ campaign staff had no immediate comment on Bacon’s overperformance score. They have argued that Bacon benefits from a combination of a district lean, name ID and the other advantages of incumbency.

Overall, Vargas won Douglas County, but by a narrow enough margin — 52%-48% — that Bacon was able to overcome the gap by winning the district’s slice of Sarpy County 66%-34% and by swamping Vargas in Saunders County, 76%-24%.

Vargas spent much of his campaign focused on the need to protect reproductive rights, to help workers more easily organize into unions and to help protect and secure the future of Social Security, Medicare and the Affordable Care Act.

His campaign had discussed the difficulties of pushing back against ads painting him as someone who wanted to double his salary and blaming him for serving on a school board that approved hiring employees who later ended up abusing students.

Vargas has criticized Bacon as saying or doing anything to be re-elected.

Bacon’s campaign similarly complained about ads that he said miscast him as more extreme than he is, particularly on abortion. He said he has always supported exceptions for the life of the mother. Vargas highlighted legislation Bacon cosponsored that contained no exceptions.

Retired UNO political scientist Paul Landow, who worked in Democratic politics for years in Nebraska and the 2nd District, said Bacon is going to be hard for any Democrat to dislodge because he fits the district “like the pieces of a puzzle.” 

“There are a lot of people who want to vote for him and do,” Landow said. “And when you wake up in the morning and do, he’s got a victory.”