The UFC returns to the Apex for unclear reasons, but we have some fights to bet on this weekend.
APEX cards are usually good for finishes, but no crowd undoubtedly takes some of the allure away from the product.
Regardless, the APEX octagon is about 30 percent smaller than the ones they compete in elsewhere, and we could see more of that on this fight card.
Six of the 12 fights on this card are expected to end inside the distance.
When football ends, the UFC takes center stage, as the promotion surely gets plenty more eyeballs without a slate of college football to compete.
The card kicks off at 4 p.m. ET, and the main card begins at 7 p.m. ET, with the entire card on ESPN+.
UFC Fight Night predictions
Jared Cannonier vs. Gregory Rodrigues
In the main event of this Apex card, Gregory “RoboCop” Rodrigues headlines in what might be the final fight of Jared Cannonier’s career.
Cannonier, 41, has been a stalwart in the UFC Middleweight division for a long time, but after setting records for significant strikes against Marvin Vettori in 2023, it seems like we have seen his decline begin since then.
His losses to Nassourdine Imavov and Caio Barralho are all fights that he would probably win in his prime.
But Cannonier will certainly have a disadvantage here both in terms of size and grappling, as Rodrigues should have clear advantages in those departments.
Rodrigues leans into his grappling more often when fighting strikers, as we’ve seen when he fought Arman Petrosyan and last time out against Christian “Leroy” Duncan.
Cannonier isn’t completely washed, though, and won’t make Rodrigues look like the second coming of Khamzat Chimaev.
I expect a competitive fight that goes deeper than Rodrigus typically goes.
Cannonier has had five straight five round fights, with four of which going the distance and all of them going over 2.5 rounds.
Expect more of the same here.
THE PLAY: Over 2.5 rounds (-110, Bet365) | Fight goes to decision (+250, DraftKings)
Calvin Kattar vs. Youssef Zalal
Calvin Kattar has looked bad, we know that.
But how could we be this disrespectful against a non-world beater like Zalal?
Kattar’s strength of schedule is elite, although he’s dropped four of five against Aljamain Sterling, Arnold Allen, and Josh Emmett consecutively.
Surely these are two fighters going in opposite directions, as Zalal is improving with each fight while Kattar has digressed in his athleticism and doesn’t have good takedown defense.
Zalal is a strong grappler and will be threatening it with each exchange, something Kattar doesn’t want to be dealing with much.
Still, I can’t help but see that Zalal lost three straight fights against now-champion Ilia Topuria while also losing to SeungWoo Choi, and Sean Woodson in 2021.
He has undoubtedly improved dramatically since then, but his three wins over Billy Quarantillo, Jarno Errens, and Jack Shore aren’t victories over title contenders.
In fact, I still view Kattar as a step up in competition.
Maybe I’m wrong.
But I’ll take Kattar by decision at +900 here in a “Y’all must’ve forgot” moment.
PICK: Kattar by decision (+900, BetRivers)
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UFC Fight Night full card picks
Jared Cannonier (+200) vs. Gregory Rodrigues: Over 2.5 rounds (-110, Bet365) | Fight goes to decision (+250, DraftKings)
Calvin Kattar (+380 vs. Youssef Zalal: Kattar by decision (+900, BetRivers)
Edmen Shahbazyan (-350) Dylan Budka: Pass pre-fight, potentially grab Budka live if he survives round one.
Ismael Bonfim (-230) vs. Nazim Sadykhov: Sadykhov by decision (+500, DraftKings)
Rodolfo Vieira (-275) vs. Andre Petroski: Viera inside the distance (+105, Fanatics Sportsbook)
Connor Matthews vs. (-430) Jose Delgado: Delgado by submission (+450, DraftKings)
Angela Hill (-105) vs. Ketlen Souza: Fight to be won by split or majority decision (+225, DraftKings)
Rafael Estevam (-500) vs. Jesus Aguilar: Pass
Gabriel Bonfim vs. Khaos Williams: Williams ML (+180, Caesars) by KO/TKO (+320, BetRivers)
Vince Morales (+130) vs. Elijah Smith: Smith by decision (+130, FanDuel)
Don’Tale Mayes (+210) vs. Valter Walker: Walker ML (-250, ESPN BET)
Julia Avila (+510) vs. Jacqueline Cavalcanti: Pass
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.
