With the 2024 Presidential Election less than two months away, the race is on for who will become the next President of the United States between Vice President Kamala Harris and Former President Donald Trump.
Heading into Tuesday night’s second Presidential debate and the first between these two candidates, Trump, the 45th President of the United States, held a small lead as he was the -125 favorite, signifying he currently has a 55.5 percent chance of being elected this November via bet365 on Covers.com.
Harris came in at +100, aka “even money”, which is right down the middle with a 50/50 implied probability to become the first woman to officially become president in United States history.
So what are the odds following tonight’s debate? Here’s are the numbers you need to know, how this race has changed this summer and more on the 2024 Presidential Election:
*Disclaimer: Federal law prohibits political wagering in the United States, including the 2024 Presidential Election
2024 Presidential election odds: Harris overtakes Trump as betting favorite
Following their first debate against one another, the odds have flipped with Harris now the -125 odds-on-favorite on bet365 via Covers.com following Tuesday night’s debate.
This gives both Harris 55.5 percent implied probability of winning the presidency, while Trump dropped to even money, aka +100, a 50 percent implied probability with less than 60 days until a new President of the United States is elected.
There’s currently no second debate between the two nominees set in stone following the first meeting at the National Constitution Center in Philadelphia on Sept. 10.
The next notable debate will be between the Vice President selections of Democratic governor Tim Walz of Minnesota and Ohio senator J.D. Vance on Oct. 1 airing on CBS News in New York City .
If Walz or Vance have a stronger showing over their opponent next month, it could give the respective party a small upper hand nearly a month out from Election Day.
2024 Presidential election odds: Kamala Harris vs Donald Trump
Once President of the United States Joe Biden dropped out from running for a second team on July 21, Trump was a massive -200 favorite (Bet $200 to win $100) on bet365 to be elected President of the United States for a second time while Harris sat at 2/1 (Bet $100 to win $200) in the betting market.
As seen above, those numbers have now changed drastically with Harris the new betting favorite.
It’s been a back-and-forth battle between the two candidates, with Harris becoming the favorite in mid-August before Trump retook the lead prior to Tuesday’s debate.
With voters still having plenty of time to choose who will be in the oval office, don’t be surprised if this seesaw battle continues of Trump and Harris continuously overtaking one another during the next eight weeks.
Accuracy of Presidential elections odds throughout history
According to the Conversation, the odds-on-favorite in the Presidential election has only lost twice since 1866.
One of those upsets was Trump himself, when he overcame 7/2 odds (22.22 implied win probability) to defeat Hilary Clinton, the Democratic nominee in the 2016 Presidential election.
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