Let’s start by addressing the market’s perceived margin between the American and Italian women’s ice hockey teams in the 2026 Winter Olympics quarterfinal round.
The United States is a 6.5-goal favorite and -50000 on the moneyline for Friday’s 3:10 p.m. puck drop.
So, if you wagered $50,000 on the United States to win, you would receive a $100 payout if your bet cashed.
In prediction market terms, the United States reflects a 99 percent chance on Kalshi. You would need to risk 99 cents to make one cent on United States “Yes” contracts.
Olympic hockey lines can cause bettors to have eyes bigger than their stomachs since the range of talent is so vast. It’s not often we see teams at the best-on-best level handicapped miles away from one another.
Women’s hockey: United States vs. Italy odds, prediction
The United States, the No. 1 seed in Group A and overall, cruised to 4-0 with a tournament-leading plus-19 goal differential in the preliminary games.
It has allowed one total goal, mostly thanks to an unwavering forecheck.
This is far and away the deepest roster in the field, with five players ranking in the top-10 point scorers.
Defenseman Caroline Harvey is tied for the lead with seven points and a plus-10 rating.
Italy, the No. 3 seed from Group B and No. 8 overall, sleepwalked its way to 2-2 with victories over France and Japan, the two eliminated countries from quarterfinal play.
When it faced Sweden, the other undefeated team in the tournament, it lost 6-1.
It’s Italy’s first bid back into the Olympics for women’s hockey since 2006, when it last hosted in Turin.
Italy has never had a finish better than 16th at the World Championships, so cracking the quarterfinal round with three goals from forward Matilde Fantin far exceeded expectations.
Betting on the NHL?
The Americans just squashed their biggest rival in Canada, 5-0, shutting them out for the first time in Olympic history.
The question is how the Italians can follow that in even mustering enough offensive zone time, let alone generating scoring chances.
This is the second time I’m laying 6.5 goals in these Games — and both were against Italy, no less, having done so in Wednesday’s men’s opener with Sweden.
That bet didn’t cash, but the difference here is this carries the severity of the elimination round, and the Americans have the empirical momentum to fade an inferior challenge this severely.
They’re that good.
THE PLAY: United States -6.5 (-120, DraftKings)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He primarily focuses on picks that reflect market value while tracking trends to mitigate risk.
