It is tempting to call the Valero Texas Open a dress rehearsal. Augusta is on deck, and most of golf’s heavy-hitters will take the week off and head down Magnolia Lane early. Can’t blame them.
But it’s worth remembering: the money you (and the golfers) win at the Valero Texas Open is just as green as what’s on the line at the Masters. It may not carry the same cachet at the water cooler, but it cashes just the same.
Here’s some more good news. This week’s tournament has all the right ingredients for a long-shot winner.
Tommy Fleetwood, Ludvig Aberg and Russell Henley are co-favorites at 15/1, with Robert MacIntyre (18/1) and 2021 champion Jordan Spieth (20/1) rounding out a very lukewarm top-five that was further depleted when Collin Morikawa withdrew.
The pack of players behind Spieth also leaves something to be desired, with the likes of Keith Mitchell, Denny McCarthy, Rickie Fowler and Sepp Straka all at 35/1 or shorter. Those are all good players, and a few of them have a strong history at TPC San Antonio, but if this were a stronger field, they’d be sitting at double or triple the price.
A weak field and the distraction of Augusta on the other side of the weekend should create an opportunity for a long shot to get hot this weekend.
2026 Valero Texas Open picks
Nick Taylor (75/1, bet365)
Whenever Nick Taylor is in this range, you owe it to yourself to at least do a little bit of digging.
The Canadian has a reputation for being one of the best closers on the PGA Tour, a shark in the water anytime he finds himself in contention down the stretch.
A five-time winner on the PGA Tour, including three in his last three years, Taylor ticks a number of boxes for this event.
This is a course that rewards experience, and Taylor has played it seven times, posting a top-15 in his latest visit (2023), to go along with a pair of top-25 showings in his first two trips.
Another reason to be bullish on Taylor is that this course is more about craft and guile than sheer power. You need to be able to plot and carve your way around TPC San Antonio, something that should play into Taylor’s strengths as a golfer.
And while you can point to his current form as a concern, Taylor has proven that he can win from out of nowhere. He wasn’t in any semblance of rhythm before his last three victories, which is why he was a long shot in each of them.
Matt Kuchar (175/1, bet365)
Now 47 years old, Matt Kuchar’s salad days are long behind him. But if there was any place where Kuchar would fancy himself to pick up the 10th win of his PGA Tour career, it would be TPC San Antonio.
Kuchar has played more rounds on this course than anybody else in this field, and they’ve largely been quality.
Kuchar has posted five top-20 finishes in his last six outings at TPC San Antonio, and has two podium finishes and another top-10 showing in that span.
Playing on a course that puts an emphasis on precision over power, and against a field that is lacking in starpower, Kuchar has a decent chance to outrun his massive odds this week.
Brendon Todd (2,000/1, DraftKings)
This bet won’t win, but it’s worth a small (and I mean small) wager because of Brendon Todd’s history at TPC San Antonio.
The 40-year-old finished fifth here in 2024 and eighth in 2022, so something about the Oaks Course lines up with his game.
A part-time player at this point in his career, Todd was never known for his ability off the tee, but he can handle himself on courses that require you to be precise and map out a path to the green.
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
