The ACC Championship comes down to the No. 1 team in the country and the conference’s best challenger.
Duke and No. 10 Virginia will meet again after the Blue Devils dismantled the Cavaliers 77-51 on Feb. 28, covering a 9.5-point spread.
Both teams claimed comfortable victories in the semifinals: Duke held Clemson to 32.7 percent shooting to win 73-61 while the Cavaliers rolled past Miami 84-62 behind strong interior play from Ugonna Onyenso.
The line has moved one point Virginia’s way since opening at 8.5 points in Duke’s favor on Friday night. According to DraftKings, 53 percent of spread bets are on Duke -6.5, but I’m leaning toward the Cavs to cover.
Virginia vs. Duke prediction, best bet
There’s more than meets the eye to the last meeting between these two. Yes, Duke stunted the Cavaliers to 29 percent shooting and just 20 percent from three, though a key reason is how poorly Virginia’s players played.
Sam Lewis and Malik Thomas combined to go 0-for-14 from the field in that game, and they can only improve here.
Thus far in the ACC Tournament, both of those guys have been efficient offensively: Lewis is shooting 80 percent from three and Thomas is averaging 15.5 points per game.
There’s also the towering Ugonna Onyenso, whose elite shot-blocking and high-energy defense around the basket have proved pivotal the last few games. He averaged just over 18 minutes throughout the regular season, but clocked 27 and 30 minutes against Miami and NC State, respectively. That time on the floor has churned out 12 blocks.
Let’s also remember that Duke doesn’t have both Pat Ngongba and Caleb Foster this time around, two of their top-four scorers. Ngongba accounted for 11 points in the last meeting and with thinner depth in a tournament setting, an aggressive Virginia attack can exploit a weakened Duke defense.
The Cavs offense is draining 81 points per game, which is their best scoring pace since 2000-01. That potency comes from 10.2 threes per game, the highest mark in the conference.
Defensively, Virginia has the groundwork to dance with Duke as KenPom’s 16th-ranked team in defensive rating.
Betting on College Basketball?
There’s a lot of burden on Cameron Boozer to be elite on a nightly basis. Beneath him, the secondary scoring has been volatile: Isaiah Evans scored 32 vs. Florida State in the quarterfinal; he then shot 1-for-9 vs. Clemson, and Duke struggled to stack points in the second half.
Boozer’s strong interior play that draws fouls along with plenty of kick-outs to Evans is what drives the Blue Devil offense. That formula doesn’t match up seamlessly against the ACC’s best shot-blocking and rebounding team.
THE PLAY: Virginia +7.5 (-110, BetMGM)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He primarily focuses on picks that reflect market value while tracking trends to mitigate risk.
