Which movie will win Best Picture at the Oscars? This formula predicts the answer.

The 2025 Oscar nominations have finally arrived. After a year of watching new releases, tracking their buzz and weighing their chances of taking home an Academy Award, we now know what the field looks like.

Yahoo Entertainment created a power rankings system to predict which of the 10 Best Picture nominees is most likely to win the top honor on Hollywood’s biggest night. The formula synthesizes award nominations and predictions, critics’ predictions and general fanfare. We then assign scores to each movie based on these factors, and rank the films according to which has the highest score. The Yahoo Best Picture Leaderboard is updated weekly with new predictions. Read more about our methodology here.

For the first official Leaderboard ranking, Emilia Pérez is in the lead. It earned the most Oscar nominations with 13 and has slowly become this awards season’s villain.

Anora and Wicked have also earned a number of impressive accolades over the last few months, so it’s not surprising that they’re following closely behind. Wicked has more craft nominations, but Anora snagged a coveted Best Director nod.

I’m Still Here is by far the biggest surprise on the list, and Nickel Boys was a critical favorite that managed to sneak in. A Real Pain, Sing Sing and September 5 were on our list of potential Best Picture nominees, but didn’t ultimately make the cut.

Oscars nominations were repeatedly delayed following the devastating fires in Los Angeles, giving academy members an extra few days to cast their votes. The ceremony is scheduled for March 2.

Until then, we’ll be releasing a new Leaderboard each week, explaining the shifts and any surprises that arise. Let’s dive in.

1. Emilia Pérez

What to know: A lawyer helps a cartel leader fake her death and undergo gender-affirming surgeries. Over the years, a higher calling and family entanglements complicate the plan.

Vitals: Spanish-language musical crime comedy, 2 hours and 12 minutes, rated R.

The case for Best Picture: This year’s awards season’s villain is Emilia Pérez, a film festival darling that hasn’t appealed as much to general audiences, despite being available on Netflix. Its unusual tone and subject matter are unlike any other film on this list, and that seems to be resonating with awards voters. It earned a whopping 13 Oscar nods.

It was the biggest winner at the Golden Globes and earned a slew of major nominations for acting and directing for the SAG and DGA awards. While it is memed and picked apart on social media, it’s still a top Best Picture contender for critics at major outlets like Variety and the Los Angeles Times.

How to watch: Emilia Pérez is streaming on Netflix.

2. Anora

What to know: A New York exotic dancer falls for the son of a Russian oligarch who offers her a chance at a new life, but his family tries to intervene.

Vitals: Romantic comedy drama, 2 hours and 19 minutes, rated R.

The case for Best Picture: People have been talking about Anora since it won top honors at the Cannes Film Festival in May. Though it racked up dozens of nominations from smaller awards bodies like the Gotham Awards, including honors for its star, Mikey Madison, and supporting actor Yura Borisov, it didn’t take home any Golden Globes. The film is nominated for six Oscars, which is fewer than other films on this list, but they’re in important categories that often signal a Best Picture win.

Still, writer-director Sean Baker, who’s currently living out his own Cinderella story, snagged a crucial DGA nomination. The cast is nominated for the top SAG Award. The indie movie did surprisingly well at the box office and continues to drive conversation about sex work and intimacy coordinators.

How to watch: Anora is available on video on demand.

3. Wicked

What to know: In this long-awaited Broadway musical adaptation, a magical woman who has been mistreated all her life for having green skin forms an unlikely bond with a popular student.

Vitals: Musical fantasy, 2 hours and 40 minutes, rated PG.

The case for Best Picture: Wicked is the most popular Best Picture nominee this year, enchanting audiences in theaters and generating countless memes through a massive press tour that we’re still holding space for. It was up for four Golden Globes but left with just one honoring its box office performance. It earned an impressive 10 Oscar nods.

It’s also racking up acting nominations all over the place for its stars Cynthia Erivo, Ariana Grande and Jonathan Bailey — including a Sag Award nod for Best Ensemble. It has been lauded for its technical prowess and has 11 Critics Choice Award nominations but missed out on a DGA nomination for director Jon Chu.

How to watch: Wicked is in theaters and available on video on demand.

4. The Brutalist

What to know: The film follows a Jewish architect and Holocaust survivor who flees Hungary and travels to the United States in search of the American Dream.

Vitals: Epic historical drama, 3 hours and 34 minutes, rated R.

The case for Best Picture: It’s a massive movie in every possible way, from its heavy themes to its lengthy runtime that includes an intermission to the 300 pounds of film it’s printed on. It was made on a meager $10 million budget and was difficult for wider audiences to see until just recently when all the buzz surrounding its three Golden Globe wins turned it into a cinematic event. It is nominated for 10 Oscars.

The cast was snubbed of a Best Ensemble nomination at the SAG Awards. Writer-director Brady Corbet remains a frontrunner for Best Director, though, having won the Golden Globe and the Silver Lion at the Venice Film Festival and snagged a DGA nomination. Directing awards tend to shed a little more light on possible Best Picture winners than acting awards.

How to watch: The Brutalist is in select theaters.

5. Conclave

What to know: As a group of cardinals assemble at the Vatican to select a new pope, scandals and gossip create factions and challenge their faith and relationships.

Vitals: Mystery thriller, 2 hours, rated PG.

The case for Best Picture: A movie about choosing a new pope might seem quiet and understated, but Conclave is surprisingly melodramatic and has ruffled a few feathers with controversy. The film has had a steady presence in the awards conversation and is a top pick among critics, amassing a number of nominations for lead actor Ralph Fiennes and supporting actress Isabella Rossellini, who are included in the film’s eight Oscar nods, and a Best Ensemble nod at the SAG Awards.

It’s tied with Wicked for the most Critics Choice Award noms, with 11. Director Edward Berger has also picked up major nominations including one from the DGA, So far, its only major award win is Best Screenplay at the Golden Globes.

How to watch: Conclave is streaming on Peacock.

6. A Complete Unknown

What to know: The film charts the rise of a young Bob Dylan as he skyrockets to fame and changes the course of American music.

Vitals: Biographical drama, 2 hours and 21 minutes, rated R.

The case for Best Picture: Dylan fans have mixed feelings about the biopic, but as awards season presses on, this might be the underdog film that overperforms at the Oscars. It didn’t win any Golden Globes, but it earned huge nominations for the SAG and DGA awards, gaining traction going into Oscar nominations, for which it amassed eight.

Star Timothée Chalamet has been promoting the film in fun and unconventional ways, from guest-hosting College GameDay to pulling double duty as the host and musical guest on Saturday Night Live, and his momentum is only growing.

How to watch: A Complete Unknown is in theaters.

7. Dune: Part Two

What to know: Paul Atreides works with the Fremen on the desert planet of Arrakis to prevent a doomed future that only he can see.

Vitals: Science fiction epic, 2 hours and 46 minutes, rated PG-13.

The case for Best Picture: The sequel to the 2021 science fiction adaptation earned a Best Picture nomination and plenty of technical nods just like the first film, but the fact that Dune: Part Two had a delayed release back in March 2024 might mean it’s not fresh in voters’ minds. It’s nominated for five Oscars, but none of them are for acting, directing or writing.

It doesn’t help that lead actor Timothée Chalamet has been campaigning for another film — A Complete Unknown — for which he’s a Best Actor frontrunner. The massive box office hit was also critically acclaimed, but its actors and director Denis Villeneuve have been snubbed by the Golden Globes, SAG and DGA.

How to watch: Dune: Part Two is streaming on Max.

8. The Substance

What to know: After facing a devastating blow to her career on her 50th birthday, a performer experiments with a “substance” to obtain an enhanced version of herself.

Vitals: Satirical horror, 2 hours and 21 minutes, rated R.

The case for Best Picture: Horror movies have historically been overlooked by the Oscars, but this could be the genre’s chance to break out — with a gory body horror satire starring Demi Moore. The film made a huge splash at film festivals and earned accolades for writer-director Coralie Fargeat, including Golden Globe nominations for Best Director and Best Screenplay. An Oscar nomination wouldn’t have been shocking, but for a genre film, five is impressive.

It had a surprisingly strong run in theaters before shifting to streaming on Mubi, but it’s coming back for a limited time following its awards season success. Moore went viral after delivering a heartfelt acceptance speech for her surprise Golden Globe win, which clearly kept the academy’s attention.

How to watch: The Substance is streaming on Mubi.

9. Nickel Boys

What to know: An innocent mistake shatters a Black teenager’s dreams of attending college and lands him at Nickel Academy, an abusive and segregated reformatory, where he forms a friendship with a more pessimistic student.

Vitals: Historical drama, 2 hours and 20 minutes, rated PG-13.

The case for Best Picture: Based on a Pulitzer Prize-winning book from Colson Whitehead that was inspired by real-life horrors, Nickel Boys examines abusive reform schools — a topic that’s been top of mind given recent legislature about regulating the troubled-teen industry.

It’s director RaMell Ross’s first narrative feature film, but his style is unlike any other — it’s shot from the point of view of its two young leads, focusing on what they see rather than their faces. It was nominated for a Golden Globe and five Critics Choice Awards, and Ross is up for a first-time director nomination at the DGA Awards. Though it missed out on directing and cinematography Oscar nods, it’s still up for two trophies.

How to watch: Nickel Boys is in select theaters.

10. I’m Still Here

What to know: The Brazilian film follows a woman and her five children after their lives change dramatically when her politician husband disappears. It’s based on Marcelo Rubens Paiva’s memoir.

Vitals: Portuguese-language political biographical drama, 2 hours and 16 minutes, rated PG-13.

The case for Best Picture: By far the most surprising nominee in the bunch, I’m Still Here clearly gained momentum after Fernanda Torres’s surprise Golden Globe win for Best Actress. It has three Oscar nominations, including Best Actress and Best International Feature Film.

How to watch: I’m Still Here is in select theaters.