Election Day is here, and millions of ballots are being cast across the country for the next president of the United States.
Over two months worth of polling data show just how contentious and tight the presidential race is. It also indicates that the crucial swing states of Pennsylvania, Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, and Wisconsin are all but certain to decide today’s race.
The ballots include many local and state races, but the biggest question looming on the minds of many:
Will Former President Donald Trump be returned to the White House with JD Vance at his side or will Vice President Kamala Harris become the first female president with progressive partner Tim Walz at her side?
Here’s what the polls and odds are showing today, on Election Day. To see who’s ahead in the swing state polls, click here.
Who is leading in the polls and favored in the odds?
ABC News project 538 shows Harris leading in the national polls 48.0% over Trump 46.8% — compared to last week Harris 48.1% over Trump 46.6%; compared to Harris 48.2% over Trump 46.4% two weeks ago, compared to Harris 48.5% over Trump 46.1% three weeks ago, compared to Harris 48% over Trump 47.3% four weeks ago, compared to Harris 48.5% over Trump 45.8% five weeks ago, compared to Harris 48.3% over Trump 45.6% six weeks ago, compared to Harris 48.3% over Trump 45.3% seven weeks ago, compared to Harris 47.1% over Trump 44.4% eight weeks ago, compared to Harris 47.1% over Trump at 43.9% nine weeks ago, or compared to Harris 47.0% over Trump at 43.7% ten weeks ago.
270towin shows Harris holding the lead in the national polls by 1.2% over Trump — compared to Harris 0.9% over Trump last week; compared 1.5% over Trump two weeks ago, compared to Harris 2.5% over Trump three weeks ago, compared Harris 2.8% over Trump four weeks ago, compared to Harris 3.7% over Trump five weeks ago, compared to Harris over Trump by 3% six weeks ago, compared to Harris 2.5% over Trump seven weeks ago, compared to Harris 0.9% over Trump eight weeks ago, compared to Harris 2.7% over Trump to nine weeks ago, or compared to Harris 1.9% over Trump ten weeks ago.
realclearpolling shows the betting odds are in Harris’s favor by +0.1% over Trump — compared to Trump +0.3% spread over Harris last week; compared to Harris over Trump by +0.8 two weeks ago, compared to Harris favored by +1.7 three weeks ago, compared to a tie between Harris and Trump four weeks ago, compared to Harris favored by +1.8 five weeks ago, compared to Harris favored by +2.3 six weeks ago, compared to Harris favored +2.0 seven weeks ago, compared to Harris +1.1 eight weeks ago, compared to Harris +1.8 nine weeks ago, and compared to Harris +1.7 ten weeks ago.
Polymarket, a crypto-trading platform is expressing odds by the betting public, in favor of Trump 61.9% over Harris 38.1% — compared to Trump 60% over Harris 42% last week; compared to two weeks ago Trump 64.1% over Harris 36.0%, compared Trump 56.3% over Harris 43.1% three weeks ago, compared to Trump 52.8% over Harris 46.7% four weeks ago, compared with Harris favored over Trump by 2% five weeks ago, compared to Harris over Trump by 3% six weeks ago, compared to Harris over Trump by 2% seven weeks ago, compared to Harris over Trump by 1% eight weeks ago, compared to Trump over Harris by 4% nine weeks ago, or compared to Harris over Trump by 1% ten weeks ago.
Polls and odds are constantly changing. These numbers were reflected as of Tuesday, Nov. 5, 2024, at 8:45 a.m.
How accurate have election odds or polls been in past presidential elections?
The betting favorite has only lost twice since 1866, according to the Conversation, a nonprofit news organization.
The track record on polling is more challenging as different pollsters asking different audiences can often draw higher margins for error.
According to Pew Research, confidence in the public opinion polling has suffered given the errors in the presidential elections of 2016 and 2020.
In both of these general elections, many polls underestimated the appeal of Republican Donald Trump.
This article originally appeared on NorthJersey.com: 2024 Presidential polls today: Latest election polls, results
