New Jersey’s governor election is today, Tuesday, Nov. 4, 2025, with the latest polls in the governor race predicting Democrat Mikie Sherrill will win over Republican Jack Ciattarelli, although recent polls show NJ could flip red should Ciattarelli have a strong showing similar to the 2021 election.
New Jersey polls close at 8 p.m. ET today, as County Election Offices start to report results in the Sherrill-Ciattarelli showdown. Ciattarelli had a strong showing in 2021 in Ocean and Monmouth counties and lost by just 3%, while Gov. Phil Murphy underperformed in Democratic strongholds like Bergen County and North Jersey areas. NJ remains blue, but the state tightened the political gap during the 2024 presidential election, when 20% of North Jersey counties flipped red — meaning that despite polling predictions and odds, Ciattarelli can still turn the tide in NJ.
American pollster AtlasIntel, touted by 538 founder Nate Silver as the “most accurate” of polls, shows Sherrill slightly ahead of Ciattarelli by mere tens of a percentage points, and two new polls have Sherrill’s margin of victory outcomes anywhere from 2 points to 12 points.
Former President Barack Obama led a rally on Nov. 1 for Sherrill in Newark, while President Donald Trump has endorsed Ciattarelli, and led a tele-rally on Nov. 3. Fox News host Sean Hannity also held a broadcast with Ciattarelli.
Former President Barack Obama embraces Democratic candidate for governor, Mikie Sherrill, during a voter rally at Essex County College in Newark on Saturday, Nov. 1, 2025
Who is leading NJ governor race polls?
The latest polls and odds for the NJ governor race show a stark lead for Mikie Sherrill over Jack Ciattarelli today, Tuesday, Nov. 4, 2025. There are nearly 30 New Jersey’s governor race polls, from nonpartisan, to Republican- and Democratic- sponsored, as well as those betting/trading on the Polymarket and Kalshi platforms. John Zogby Strategies released a new poll today, with Sherrill showing a 12-point lead (55% to 43%), while Research Co. on Nov. 3 had Sherrill 48% over Ciattarelli’s 46%. Both pollsters, however, have not met the New York Times’ criteria for “most reliable” polls. Here are those that are considered reliable:
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AtlasIntel: The Oct. 31 poll shows Sherrill leading 50.2% over Ciattarelli’s 49.3%. This poll is considered “most accurate” by Nate Silver, political prognosticator and founder of 538.
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Suffolk University: The latest poll from Oct. 30 shows Sherrill leading 46% over Ciattarelli 42%. The polls surveyed voters in bellwether Bergen County, finding a closer race in North Jersey — Sherill at 43% and Ciattarelli at 42%.
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Quinnipiac University: The Oct. 30 poll shows Sherrill with an 8-point lead over Ciattarelli, 51% to 43%.
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Emerson College: This poll, released Oct. 30, shows Sherrill with a 50% lead over Ciattarelli’s 48%. The poll is sponsored by PIX 11 and The Hill.
RealClear Polling shows the latest betting odds, which are currently in favor of Sherrill winning with the spread giving her an edge at +3.3 as of Oct. 31. Polymarket traders have Mikie Sherrill winning the election 83% over Ciattarelli’s 18% — down from Oct. 31 numbers with bettors giving Sherrill an 87% edge. Kalshi traders currently give Sherrill an 82% chance of winning, also down from Oct. 31 numbers.
Who is winning NJ governor election polls right now?
Mikie Sherrill is dominating in NJ governor election polls today, Nov. 4, 2025, with a lead anywhere from 1 to 12 points in the most recent polls, depending on which pollster you use.
We won’t know who will win the NJ governor race until on or after 8 p.m. ET tonight, when polls close on Election Day, but political forecasters who track polls and historical trends have chosen who they believe will win. Logan Phillips, the founder of Race to the WH, has a high forecast record in prior presidential and Senate elections. As of Nov. 4, he predicts Mikie Sherrill will win, giving her a 90.3% chance.
New Jersey Republican gubernatorial candidate Jack Ciattarelli speaks to his supporters in a parking lot off Route 35 in Hazlet on Sunday, November 2, 2025, during a rally two days before the election.
NJ governor election live results
Live updates from the NJ governor election 2025 can be found at: northJersey.com/news/elections.
When is Election Day 2025? When to vote in NJ?
Election Day in New Jersey for the 2025 NJ governor race is today, Tuesday, Nov. 4, 2025. Polling places opened at 6 a.m. and will close at 8 p.m. ET. If you forgot to send in your mail-in ballot, you could still drop it off at a secure drop box or your nearest County Board of Elections office no later than 8 p.m. ET tonight.
Will Ciattarelli flip NJ red? See NJ voting history
Historically, New Jersey has voted “blue,” or Democrat, in presidential and Senate races — although 20% of North Jersey counties flipped red in the 2024 presidential election — but has alternated between Democrat and Republican governors. Voters have usually gone with the nominee in the party opposite of the president’s; however, Gov. Phil Murphy broke that pattern when he was reelected in 2021, narrowly defeating Ciattarelli.
Ciattarelli now hopes to flip New Jersey “red,” or Republican; however, he faces an uphill battle since Democrats outnumber Republicans by about 860,00 registered voters, according to The New York Times.
Lori Comstock is a New Jersey-based journalist with the Mid-Atlantic Connect Team.
This article originally appeared on Asbury Park Press: NJ governor race polls today; who will win NJ governor? Latest polls
