Arizona continues to be a key battleground state in the 2024 presidential election, with more candidate visits scheduled and campaigns ramping up.
With just a few weeks left until the election, it’s a sprint to the finish for all the candidates and voters.
Will Former President Donald Trump be returned to the White House with J.D. Vance at his side, or will Vice President Kamala Harris become the first female president with progressive partner Tim Walz at her side?
Here is what the polls, odds and historians are saying as we head into Election Day on Tuesday, Nov. 5.
Who is leading in the polls in the US?
Polls and odds are constantly changing, but here’s where each candidate stood as of 9 a.m. on Oct. 3, 2024:
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ABC News project 538 shows Harris leading in the national polls 48.6% to Trump 45.8%. In the past, Harris has led Trump by as many as 4 percentage posts, though more recent polls show them much closer.
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270towin shows Harris leading the national polls by 4.1% over Trump.
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realclearpolling shows the betting odds are in Harris’ favor with a spread of +2.2 over Trump.
More: Is Arizona a swing state in the 2024 presidential election? Here’s what to know
Who is leading the polls in Arizona?
Former President Donald Trump had a slight lead over Vice President Kamala Harris in most Arizona polls released in the last week, but surveys show that the race is still a dead heat in this battleground state.
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ABC News project 538 shows Trump leading Harris in Arizona polls by 1.2% over Harris.
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270towin shows Trump leading the Arizona polls by 0.9% over Harris.
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realclearpolling shows the betting odds to win Arizona are in Trump’s favor with a spread of +1.7 over Harris.
Trump had the widest lead in a Suffolk University/USA TODAY poll conducted last week, while a trio of other surveys showed a closer contest among likely Arizona voters. Trump leads Harris by 6 percentage points in that Suffolk poll, but neither candidate crossed the 50% threshold of support in the survey, which was conducted Sept. 19-24.
Meanwhile, Marist College’s pollster surveyed Arizona during the same time period and found Trump had 50% of support among likely voters, a 1 percentage point lead over Harris, who had 49% of support. The Marist Poll of 1,264 likely Arizona voters had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.
Trump crossed 50% in a Fox News poll of 764 likely Arizona voters conducted jointly by Republican and Democratic pollsters Shaw & Company Research and Beacon Research. Fifty-one percent of Arizona likely voters backed Trump in that poll, and 48% support Harris. The Fox News survey was in the field from Sept. 20-24 and had a 3.5 percentage point margin of error.
Historian who has predicted 9 of 10 elections weighs in
Allan Lichtman is a distinguished professor of history at the American University in Washington, D.C. He earned a doctorate from Harvard, specializing in modern American history and quantitative methods.
He has correctly predicted the outcome of nine out of the past 10 presidential elections and has confirmed his prediction on which candidate will reclaim the White House.
This year, he predicts Vice President Kamala Harris will win.
How accurate have election odds or polls been in past presidential elections?
The betting favorite has only lost twice since 1866, according to the Conversation, a nonprofit news organization.
The track record on polling is more challenging as different pollsters asking different varieties of the population can often draw higher margins for error.
According to Pew Research, confidence in the public’s opinion polling has suffered, given the errors in the presidential elections of 2016 and 2020.
In both of these general elections, many polls underestimated the strength of the Republican candidates, including Donald Trump.
Arizona Republic reporters Stephanie Murray and Zach Bradshaw and USA TODAY Network reporter Maria Francis contributed to this article.
This article originally appeared on Arizona Republic: Who is winning the presidential election? What polls, odds predict
