With just five days to go until the election, Donald Trump and Kamala Harris remain locked in a tight battle in Arizona, a swing state for the presidential election where a narrow margin could determine the outcome.
Both candidates and their vice presidential running mates have combatively campaigned in Arizona in the weeks leading up to the election. They have rallied, visited border towns and targeted diverse demographics.
Trump and Harris both visited metro Phoenix on Thursday, indicating how important the Grand Canyon State is in this election. The vice president’s visit was for an election event with the musical group Los Tigres del Norte, while the former president was in town to participate in a live show with Tucker Carlson.
Polls and odds have shown a change in momentum and how close the presidential race has become in the last months. But who is more likely to win the battle in Arizona and in the nation, and could the ground game help tilt the scales?
Here is what the polls, odds and historians are saying as we head into Election Day on Tuesday, Nov. 5.
Who is leading in the polls in the US?
Polls and odds are constantly changing, but here’s where each candidate stood as of 7:30 a.m. on Nov. 1, 2024:
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ABC News project 538 shows Harris leading in the national polls 48% to Trump 46.8%. In the past, Harris has led Trump by as many as 4 percentage posts, though more recent polls show them much closer.
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270towin shows Harris leading the national polls by 1.2% over Trump.
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Realclearpolling shows the betting odds are in Trump’s favor with a spread of +0.3.
More: Is Arizona a swing state in the 2024 presidential election? Here’s what to know
Who is leading the polls in Arizona?
Trump has had a growing lead over Harris in most Arizona polls throughout the past weeks, but surveys show that the race is still incredibly close in the battleground state.
Here’s where each candidate stood as of 7:30 a.m. on Nov. 1, 2024:
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ABC News project 538 shows Trump leading Harris in Arizona polls by 2.3% over Harris.
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270towin shows Trump leading the Arizona polls by 1.8% over Harris.
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Realclearpolling shows the betting odds to win Arizona are in Trump’s favor with a spread of +2.3.
Historian who has predicted 9 of 10 elections weighs in
Allan Lichtman is a distinguished professor of history at the American University in Washington, D.C. He earned a doctorate from Harvard, specializing in modern American history and quantitative methods.
He has correctly predicted the outcome of nine out of the past 10 presidential elections and has confirmed his prediction on which candidate will reclaim the White House.
This year, he predicts Vice President Kamala Harris will win.
How accurate have election odds or polls been in past presidential elections?
The betting favorite has only lost twice since 1866, according to the Conversation, a nonprofit news organization.
The track record on polling is more challenging as different pollsters asking different varieties of the population can often draw higher margins for error.
According to Pew Research, confidence in the public’s opinion polling has suffered, given the errors in the presidential elections of 2016 and 2020.
In both of these general elections, many polls underestimated the strength of the Republican candidates, including Donald Trump.
Arizona Republic reporters Stephanie Murray and Zach Bradshaw and USA TODAY Network reporter Maria Francis contributed to this article.
This article originally appeared on Arizona Republic: Who is winning the presidential election right now? What polls predict
