Election Day is a month away and as the race heats up — all eyes are on the swing states, specifically – Pennsylvania.
Most states consistently vote red or blue, such as 38 states that voted for the same party over and over between 2000 and 2016, or they are visibly leaning in an overwhelming direction ahead of the election. But then there are those states that waiver or poll very closely, making them less predictable and earning them the category of – swing states or battleground states.
There has been a lot of focus on Pennsylvania because the race appears so close — that voters can likely go either way down to the Election Day wire. The state helped President Joe Biden win the 2020 election after it voted for former President Donald Trump in 2016.
Once again, Pennsylvania with its 19 electoral votes, is one of the seven battleground states now likely to determine the 2024 election. The others are Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, and Wisconsin.
The political climate over the last couple of months has made history and headlines across the country and will likely impact undecided voters or have others reconsidering their votes:
So big questions still looming: “Who will be the 47th president of the United States?” “Will Former President Donald Trump be returned to the White House with J.D. Vance at his side or will Vice President Kamala Harris become the first female president with progressive partner Tim Walz at her side?”
The answer to those questions depends on whom you ask and which polls you read. Here’s what Pennsylvania polls and odds say against the national polls as we head into Election Day on Tuesday, Nov. 5.
Who is leading in the polls and favored by the odds?
-
ABC News project 538 shows Harris leading in the national polls with 48.4% to Trump’s 45.9% versus the very close Pennsylvania poll that has Harris at 47.8% and Trump at 47.3%
-
270towin shows Harris leading the national polls by 3.4% over Trump while in the Pennsylvania poll Harris leads Trump by only 0.5%
-
realclearpolling shows the betting odds are in Harris’s favor with a spread of +2.2 over Trump, and showing a tie in Pennsylvania
-
Polymarket, a crypto-trading platform is expressing closer odds by the betting public, with Trump slightly leading Harris with 49% national odds, and showing Trump leading substantially in Pennsylvania odds of 54% over Harris’s 47%
Polls and odds are constantly changing. These numbers were reflected as of Tuesday, Oct. 4, 2024, at 2 p.m.
How accurate have election odds or polls been in past presidential elections?
The betting favorite has only lost twice since 1866, according to the Conversation, a nonprofit news organization.
The track record on polling is more challenging as different pollsters asking different varieties of the population can often draw higher margins for error.
According to Pew Research, confidence in the public’s opinion polling has suffered given the errors in the presidential elections of 2016 and 2020.
In both of these general elections, many polls underestimated the strength of the Republican candidates, including Donald Trump.
This article originally appeared on Erie Times-News: Who’s winning presidential election? What polls say vs. Pennsylvania
