Election Day is just 26 days away. The presidential race is heated and the polls and odds are reflecting change — especially in swing state Pennsylvania.
Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are spending a lot of time, money and attention on the state of Pennsylvania, where the race is so close that it can really go either way. The state voted President Joe Biden in the 2020 election after it carried Trump in the 2016 election.
Once again, Pennsylvania with its 19 electoral votes, is one of the key battleground states now likely to determine the 2024 election. Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, and Wisconsin are also considered to vital to either candidate collecting 270 Electoral College votes.
The political climate over the last couple of months has made history and continues to make headlines ahead of this race:
The big question still looms: Who will be the 47th president of the United States?
Here’s what Pennsylvania polls and odds say against the national polls as we head into Election Day on Tuesday, Nov. 5.
Who is leading in the polls and favored by the odds?
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ABC News project 538 shows Harris leading by 2.6% in the national polls with 48.6 % over Trump’s 45.9% compared to Pennsylvania polls where Harris leads by 0.8% with Harris 48.0% over Trump’s 47.3%
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270towin shows Harris leading the national polls by 2.7% compared to last week, she was leading 3.4% over Trump. While in the Pennsylvania poll Harris leads Trump by only 0.2% compared to her lead of 0.5% last week.
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realclearpolling shows the betting odds are in Harris’s favor with a spread of +2.0 over Trump compared to her lead of +2.2 over Trump last week. While in Pennsylvania Trump has now favored in the spread by +0.3 over last week’s tie with Harris.
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Polymarket, a crypto-trading platform is showing growing odds by the betting public, with Trump odds of 54.3% favored of Harris odds of 45.1% compared to last week where Harris lead with 49% national odds. While in Pennsylvania, Trump’s spread is growing with odds of 56% over Harris’s 45%, compared to last week’s spread of Trump 54% over Harris’s 47%.
Polls and odds are constantly changing. These numbers were reflected as of Tuesday, Oct. 10, 2024, at 11 a.m.
How accurate have election odds or polls been in past presidential elections?
The betting favorite has only lost twice since 1866, according to the Conversation, a nonprofit news organization.
The track record on polling is more challenging as different pollsters asking different varieties of the population can often draw higher margins for error.
According to Pew Research, confidence in the public’s opinion polling has suffered given the errors in the presidential elections of 2016 and 2020.
In both of these general elections, many polls underestimated the strength of the Republican candidates, including Donald Trump.
This article originally appeared on Erie Times-News: Who is winning the election? Wha Pennsylvania polls say
