New Jersey’s 2025 governor election is tomorrow, Nov. 4, 2025, and the latest polls in the NJ governor race predict a Mikie Sherrill win over Jack Ciattarelli, although a recent poll shows either candidate could pull out the win on or shortly after Election Day, when results will be official.
American pollster AtlasIntel, touted by veteran election analyst Nate Silver as “top-rated” and the most accurate in the 2024 presidential election, shows Sherill, a Democrat, slightly ahead of Republican challenger Ciattarelli. However, Polymarket and Kalshi predictions markets waiver on several margin of victory outcomes, meaning traders are unsure how commanding Sherill’s lead could be.
During the 2021 governor election, Ciattarelli was behind 8 points in the polls, but he had a strong showing in Republican strongholds like Monmouth and Ocean counties and had carried the lead throughout Election Day. Ciattarelli defied projected polls by losing by just 3% of the vote to Gov. Phil Murphy. Murphy, who is term-limited and cannot run again after eight years in office, also underperformed in Democrat-rich areas like Bergen County and other North Jersey areas.
President Donald Trump plans to hold a 7:30 p.m. tele-rally for Ciattarelli tonight, Nov. 3. On Nov. 1, Former President Barack Obama led a rally for Sherrill in Newark, also attended by lawmakers including Sen. Cory Booker and Gov. Murphy.
Jack Ciattarelli and Mikie Sherrill
NJ governor’s race polls, favor
The latest NJ governor polls reflect a stark lead for Mikie Sherrill vs Jack Ciattarelli. There are nearly 30 New Jersey’s governor race polls, from nonpartisan, to Republican- and Democratic- sponsored, as well as those betting/trading on the Polymarket and Kalshi platforms. Here are the latest updates on the most “reliable” polls, meaning they meet certain criteria, according to the New York Times.
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AtlasIntel shows a near dead-heat, with Sherrill leading 50.2% over Ciattarelli’s 49.3%. Less than 1% of voters are undecided. Lauded as the “most accurate” by Nate Silver’s “Silver Bulletin” rankings, AtlasIntel found Ciattarelli leads with men 60% to 41%, while Sherrill with women 59% to 41%. Ciattarelli leads with Black voters 60% to Sherill’s 40%, while Sherill has 62% of Latino voters to Ciattarelli’s 28%. The Oct. 31 poll, potentially the last before Election Day, also shows President Trump with a 47% approval rating in NJ, while Murphy has 43%.
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Suffolk University shows Sherrill leading 46% over Ciattarelli 42%, with a +4 point lead in their latest poll on Oct. 30. The polls surveyed voters in bellwether Bergen County, finding a closer race in North Jersey — Sherill at 43% and Ciattarelli at 42%.
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Quinnipiac University‘s poll released Oct. 30 shows Sherrill with an 8-point lead over Ciattarelli, 51% to 43%. Taxes were the most important issue (25%) among voters in NJ, with 57% of women backing Sherrill over Ciattarelli (37%). Men, however back Ciattarelli 50%, while 43% back Sherrill. As for how Phil Murphy has handled being NJ’s governor? About 45% approve.
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Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research shows Sherrill leading 52% over Ciattarelli’s 45%, with Sherill having a 7-point lead, according to their poll updated Oct. 30. This poll is sponsored by Fox News. The poll states Ciattarelli is “favored by 4 points among white voters and by 10 points among men without a college degree,” while 98% of “self-identified MAGA supporters” have backed him. More New Jerseyans find Sherill more honest and trustworthy. However, Sherrill’s allegations about her record at the Naval Academy damaged her, Fox News said, citing a Republican pollster.
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Emerson College shows Sherrill with a 50% lead over Ciattarelli’s 48%. The poll, sponsored by PIX 11 and The Hill, released Oct. 30, shows a greater deal of people now decided on a candidate to vote for, compared to a Sept. 25 poll (2% vs. 11%). A majority of voters (52%) say the economy is the top issue facing NJ, while 14% say threats to democracy.
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Rutgers-Eagleton shows Sherrill leading 50% over Ciattarelli 45%, with a +5 point lead in their latest poll on Oct. 22. President Donald Trump is a “major factor” for 52% of those polled, with Democrats more prone (78%) say so, over Republicans (38%). Non-Hispanic white voters lean in Ciattarelli’s favor (46% Sherril vs 53% Ciattarelli), while Sherill leads among nonwhite voters (59%). Voters 65 and older also lean toward Sherilll, 61%, whereas those between ages 18 and 34 are mixed (49% for Sherrill).
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Fairleigh Dickinson University shows Sherrill leading 52% over Ciattarelli’s 45%, with a +7 point lead in their Oct. 17 polls. Ciattarelli’s support by Republicans, while up 10 points since July, is softer than Sherrill’s support from Democrats, which is up 6 points from July: More Republicans are “probable” on their votes, while Democrats are more “definite” on theirs. As for favorability, Sherrill ranks 5.5 on a scale of 1-10, where “intensely dislike” is 1. Ciattarelli ranks 4.6. Interestingly, the FDU study says, the most popular thing that residents like about Ciattarelli is that he is a lifelong resident of NJ — opposed to Sherill, who was born in Virginia. For Sherill, it’s her service as a Navy helicopter pilot and being a mother of four. However, their policy positions also play a factor.
Rep. Mikie Sherrill, Democratic candidate for New Jersey governor, sits down with USA TODAY Network New Jersey Editorial Board at The Record and NorthJersey.com, Woodland Park, N.J., Oct. 9, 2025.
Who is winning the NJ governor race?
We won’t know who will win the NJ governor race until on or after Election Day, Nov. 4, 2025, but there are forecasters who track polling, historical trends, candidate quality, and fundraising to determine who they believe will win the NJ governor race.
Of those is Logan Phillips, the founder of Race to the WH, who has a high forecast record in prior presidential and Senate elections. He forecasts Mikie Sherrill will win, giving her a 90.1% chance.
How accurate have polls been in past elections?
According to independent publication Silver Bulletin and polling aggregator FiveThirtyEight, founded by political statistician Nate Silver, who was praised by President Trump last year, provides the following ratings for each pollster as reported in this article. See how he collects his data here.
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Beacon Research/Shaw and Co. Research: A
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Quinnipiac University: B+
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Fairleigh Dickinson University: A/B
Jack Ciattarelli looks up at a video display screen while speaking with members of the editorial board at the Bergen Record/northjersey.com’s newsroom, Oct 21, 2025, Woodland Park, NJ, USA.
When is the NJ governor election?
Election Day in New Jersey for the 2025 NJ governor race is Tuesday, Nov. 4, 2025. Polling places open on Election Day from 6 a.m. to 8 p.m. Early in-person voting is now over in NJ, but you can still vote in person or drop your mail-in ballot in a secure drop box or your nearest County Board of Elections office no later than 8 p.m. ET tomorrow.
Will Ciattarelli flip NJ red? See NJ voting history
Historically, New Jersey has voted “blue,” or Democrat, in presidential and Senate races but has alternated between Democrat and Republican governors. Voters have usually gone with the nominee in the party opposite of the president’s; however, Gov. Phil Murphy broke that pattern when he was reelected in 2021, narrowly defeating Ciattarelli.
Ciattarelli now hopes to flip New Jersey “red,” or Republican; however, he faces an uphill battle since Democrats outnumber Republicans by about 860,00 registered voters, according to The New York Times.
Lori Comstock is a New Jersey-based journalist with the Mid-Atlantic Connect Team.
This article originally appeared on NorthJersey.com: Who will win NJ governor race? Track NJ governor polls, odds, latest
