Is it too soon to ask? Even though the next presidential election is four years away, Democratic hopefuls are already starting to lay the groundwork for a 2028 presidential run.
The latest poll from Emerson College asked voters which Democratic candidate they would support in 2024. Vice President Kamala Harris earned 37% backing, followed by California Gov. Gavin Newsom with 7%.
Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer and Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro also landed in the top five.
Here’s more about these candidates and their chances of running in the 2028 presidential election.
Kamala Harris
According to Politico’s Monday report, Harris directed her advisers not to leave out any political options, including the 2026 gubernatorial race in her home state of California. According to the latest poll from the University of California’s Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies, Harris would wipe the floor in a crowded Democratic primary field for California’s top spot, against the likes of former state Senate leader Toni Atkins, Lt. Gov. Elena Kounalakis, and former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, as the Los Angeles Times reported.
For now, Harris is keeping her options open and is expected to redefine her place in the Democratic Party after she departs from the White House.
Tim Walz
Gov. Tim Walz will continue leading Minnesota as governor for the remainder of his term, which ends in 2026. He hasn’t revealed his aspirations beyond that. Before Harris picked him as her running mate, Walz’s name wasn’t on top of the list of candidates for 2028, but that’s not the case anymore.
Still, the Harris-Walz campaign’s performance dampened his plans for the future. Hamline University professor and political expert David Schultz told WCCO that the Minnesota governor’s political paths on the national and state levels are closed.
Gavin Newsom
As the Los Angeles Times columnist George Skelton wrote, Harris’ loss creates a path, albeit a bumpy one, for Newsom to be president in 2028. He “won’t feel politically and morally inhibited from entering the race” against someone from his home turf. Plus, he will be termed out of running for governor again and can launch a potential campaign in two years. A recent report suggested Harris may be vying for Newsom’s job after he leaves office.
As for Newsom, his desire to run for president was evident as far back as his college days. The congratulatory message Newsom’s family left in the senior yearbook of Santa Clara University from 1989 said: “Gavinsy by George you did it! The next step the Presidency?” Or, perhaps, California governors are naturally pulled towards the White House. Ronald Reagan, a Republican, served as the governor of the Golden State before entering the White House, while others like former governors Jerry Brown, a Democrat, and Pete Wilson, a Republican, launched unsuccessful bids, as the Deseret News previously reported.
California Gov. Gavin Newsom speaks in Larkspur, Calif., Tuesday, April 16, 2024. Newsom has announced a plan to allow Arizonans abortion care access in California. | Jeff Chiu
Josh Shapiro
The Pennsylvania governor isn’t as well situated as Newsom, who won reelection and dodged a recall. In many ways, Shapiro’s reelection in 2026 will be another test to becoming a household name, as Axios’ Isaac Avilucea wrote. He was among Harris’ top candidates for running mates this year.
The Brookings Institution notes that Shapiro appeared more controversial, partly because of his support for Israel amid its war with Hamas. His other policy stances — like his backing for school vouchers — positioned him center left, compared to Harris’ chosen running mate, the more progressive Walz.
Pete Buttigieg
Buttigieg ran an 11-month-long campaign for the Democratic Party’s nomination for president in 2019 and endorsed Biden before he dropped out of the race. Should the Navy veteran win in 2028, he would be the first openly gay president. Politico reported he is expected to go on a tour of speaking events to tout the accomplishments of his agency, the Department of Transportation, and the Biden administration.
Buttigieg’s time at the White House has been a series of disasters, including Southwest Airlines’ meltdown during the winter holidays, resulting in more than 15,000 canceled flights, and the derailment of a train carrying toxic chemicals in Ohio.
While Biden, and later Harris, campaigned to be president, Buttigieg was tapped as a surrogate and defended the Biden White House in appearances on Fox News. He hasn’t ruled out another run for president.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
The 35-year-old is one of the most outspoken progressives in Congress, following in the footsteps of senior Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt. New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez won her district by roughly 38 percentage points over her Republican opponent Tina Forte. But Harris led Trump by 24 points, showing many voters in her district split their ticket.
In 2022, she sat down with GQ Magazine and admitted that running for president “provokes a lot of inner conflict.” Becoming emotional, Ocasio-Cortez said that although she believes “that anything is possible,” the country would never allow a woman to be president.
Gretchen Whitmer
While politicians and experts are still analyzing the results of the 2024 election, Whitmer says she will continue to do what she has been doing. “As governor of the great state of Michigan, my job remains the same no matter who is in the White House,” she said. “I am focused on getting things done that make a real difference in people’s lives.” When her name was floated to replace Biden, she allegedly put a stop to it and has not expressed an interest in running for the White House.
