Election Day countdown is just 28 days away. The race is heated and the polls show it with past six weeks worth of polls and odds reflecting change.
Last week’s vice presidential debate between Republican Sen. JD Vance of Ohio and Democratic Gov. Tim Walz of Minnesota kicked, was likely the last of the debates after former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris met for a debate in September, and have not agreed to another face-off.
The political climate over the last couple of months has made history and headlines ahead of this race:
The big question is still looming: Who will be the 47th president of the United States?
Here is what the polls, odds and a historian have said over the past six weeks and how they are changing as we head into Election Day on Tuesday, Nov. 5.
Who is leading in the polls and favored by the odds?
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ABC News project 538 shows Harris leading in the national polls 48% over Trump 47.3% compared to Harris 48.5% over Trump 45.8% last week, compared to Harris 48.3% over Trump 45.6% two weeks ago, compared to Harris 48.3% over Trump 45.3% three weeks ago, compared to Harris 47.1% over Trump 44.4% four weeks ago, compared to Harris 47.1% over Trump at 43.9% five weeks ago, or compared to Harris 47.0% over Trump at 43.7% six weeks ago.
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270towin shows Harris leading the national polls by 2.8% over Trump compared to Harris 3.7% over Trump last week, compared to Harris over Trump by 3% two weeks ago, compared to Harris 2.5% over Trump three weeks ago, compared to Harris 0.9% over Trump four weeks ago, compared to Harris 2.7% over Trump to five weeks ago, or compared to Harris 1.9% over Trump six weeks ago.
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realclearpolling shows the betting odds are now tied between Harris and Trump, compared to Harris favored with a spread of +1.8 over Trump last week, compared to Harris favor of +2.3 over Trump two weeks ago, compared to Harris +2.0 over Trump three weeks ago, compared to Harris +1.1 over Trump four weeks ago, compared to Harris +1.8 over Trump five weeks ago, and compared to Harris +1.7 over Trump six weeks ago.
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Polymarket, a crypto-trading platform is expressing odds by the betting public, in favor of Trump 52.8% over Harris 46.7%, compared with Harris favored over Trump by 2% last week, compared to Harris over Trump by 3% two weeks ago, compared to Harris over Trump by 2% three weeks ago, compared to Harris over Trump by 1% four weeks ago or compared to Trump over Harris by 4% five weeks ago or compared to Harris leading by 1% point over Trump six weeks ago.
Polls and odds are constantly changing. These numbers were reflected as of Tuesday, Oct. 8, 2024, at 11:45 a.m.
What did Allan Lichtman predict for the presidential election of 2024?
Presidential historian Allan Lichtman, 77, is a distinguished professor of history at American University and lives in Bethesda, Maryland.
The presidential historian has predicted that Vice President Kamala Harris will win the 2024 presidential election over former President Donald Trump. He claims to use a set of 13 “keys” to make his picks, which range from economic indicators to candidates’ charisma.
Lichtman has correctly predicted the outcome of almost every election over the last half-century, except for the race in 2000, in which Republican George W. Bush defeated Democrat Al Gore.
How accurate have election odds or polls been in past presidential elections?
The betting favorite has only lost twice since 1866, according to the Conversation, a nonprofit news organization.
The track record on polling is more challenging as different pollsters asking different audiences can often draw higher margins for error.
According to Pew Research, confidence in the public opinion polling has suffered given the errors in the presidential elections of 2016 and 2020.
In both of these general elections, many polls underestimated the appeal of Republican Donald Trump.
This article originally appeared on NorthJersey.com: Who is winning presidential election? What the Harris Trump polls say
