Election Day countdown is on with just over a month to go as the race gets heated and the polls show it.
Tuesday’s vice presidential debate between Republican Sen. JD Vance of Ohio and Democratic Gov. Tim Walz of Minnesota is set to kick off the month ahead of any October surprises.
This is likely the last of the debates after former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris met for a debate earlier this month, and have not agreed to a second face-off.
The political climate over the last couple of months has made history and headlines ahead of this race:
Most recently, there are bubbling issues signaling chaos ahead of the election such as the port strike along the East and Gulf Coast ports and the boiling conflicts in the Middle East.
So the big questions looming: “Who will be the 47th president of the United States?” “Will Former President Donald Trump be returned to the White House with J.D. Vance at his side or will Vice President Kamala Harris become the first female president with progressive partner Tim Walz at her side?”
The answer to those questions depends on whom you ask and which polls you read.
Here is what the polls, odds and a historian have said over the past five weeks as we head into Election Day on Tuesday, Nov. 5.
Who is leading in the polls and favored by the odds?
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ABC News project 538 shows Harris leading in the national polls 48.5% to Trump 45.8% compared to Harris 48.3% to Trump 45.6% last week, compared to Harris 48.3% to Trump 45.3% two weeks ago, compared to Harris 47.1% to Trump 44.4% three weeks ago, compared to Harris 47.1% to Trump at 43.9% four weeks ago, or compared to Harris 47.0% to Trump at 43.7% five weeks ago.
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270towin shows Harris leading the national polls by 3.7% over Trump compared to Harris over Trump by 3% last week, compared to Harris 2.5% over Trump two weeks ago, compared to Harris 0.9% over Trump three weeks ago, compared to Harris 2.7% over Trump to four weeks ago, or compared to Harris 1.9% over Trump five weeks ago.
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realclearpolling shows the betting odds are in Harris’ favor with a spread of +1.8 over Trump compared to Harris favor of +2.3 over Trump last week, compared to Harris +2.0 over Trump two weeks ago, compared to Harris +1.1 over Trump three weeks ago, compared to Harris +1.8 over Trump four weeks ago, and compared to Harris +1.7 over Trump five weeks ago.
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Polymarket, a crypto-trading platform is expressing odds by the betting public, in favor of Harris over Trump by 2% compared to Harris over Trump by 3% last week, compared to Harris over Trump by 2% two weeks ago, compared to Harris over Trump by 1% three weeks ago or compared to Trump over Harris by 4% four weeks ago or compared to Harris leading by 1% point over Trump five weeks ago.
Polls and odds are constantly changing. These numbers were reflected as of Tuesday, Oct. 1, 2024, at 10:45 a.m.
What did Allan Lichtman predict for the presidential election of 2024?
Presidential historian Allan Lichtman, 77, is a distinguished professor of history at American University and lives in Bethesda, Maryland.
The presidential historian has predicted that Vice President Kamala Harris will win the 2024 presidential election over former President Donald Trump. He claims to use a set of 13 “keys” to make his picks, which range from economic indicators to candidates’ charisma.
Lichtman has correctly predicted the outcome of almost every election over the last half-century, except for the race in 2000, in which Republican George W. Bush defeated Democrat Al Gore.
How accurate have election odds or polls been in past presidential elections?
The betting favorite has only lost twice since 1866, according to the Conversation, a nonprofit news organization.
The track record on polling is more challenging as different pollsters asking different varieties of the population can often draw higher margins for error.
According to Pew Research, confidence in the public’s opinion polling has suffered given the errors in the presidential elections of 2016 and 2020.
In both of these general elections, many polls underestimated the strength of the Republican candidates, including Donald Trump.
This article originally appeared on NorthJersey.com: Who is winning presidential election? What the Harris Trump polls say
