Election Day is now just 11 days away and the swing states are swaying in the polls over the past week, including the national polls.
Most states consistently vote blue or red such as the 38 states that voted for the same party over and over between 2000 and 2016, but some lean differently in each election. These are called swing states or the battleground states.
Both political campaigns are exhausting their time, money and energy in the critical battleground states of Pennsylvania, Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, and Wisconsin — where the race is so close that it can really go either way.
Pennsylvania is considered essential to winning the White House, with both former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris hoping to sweep up the state’s 19 Electoral College votes on Election Night.
The political climate over the last couple of months has made history and headlines across the country and is likely to impact undecided voters or have others reconsidering their votes as tension rises:
So who will be the 47th president of the United States? Will Trump make a return to the White House with J.D. Vance at his side or will Harris be our first female president with progressive partner Tim Walz at her side?
Here are the most recent updates on each swing states’ polls and odds compared to the national polls and odds — as we head into Election Day on Tuesday, Nov. 5.
Who is leading in the swing states’ polls and favored by the odds?
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ABC News project 538 shows Harris leading in the national polls by +1.7%, Harris 48.1% to Trump’s 46.4%; Pennsylvania has Trump leading by +0.3%; Arizona has Trump leading by +1.8%; Georgia has Trump leading by +1.5%; Michigan has Harris leading by +0.7%; Nevada has Harris leading by +0.1%; North Carolina has Trump leading by +1.2%; and Wisconsin has Harris leading by +0.2. Harris lead has shrunk since last week’s polls results.
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270towin shows Harris leading the national polls by 0.6% over Trump while in the Pennsylvania poll Trump leads over Harris by only 0.2%; Arizona has Trump leading by 1.4%; Georgia has Trump leading by 1.1%; Michigan has Harris leading by 0.6%; Nevada has Harris leading by 0.3%; North Carolina has Trump leading by 1.2%, and Wisconsin has Harris leading by 0.2%. Trump has taken a marginal lead since last week’s polls results.
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realclearpolling shows the betting odds are in an even tie between Trump and Harris, while Pennsylvania shows odds favoring Trump by +0.6; Arizona shows odds +1.5 in favor of Trump; Georgia shows +2.2 in favor of Trump; Michigan shows +0.2 in favor of Trump; Nevada shows +0.7 in favor of Trump; North Carolina shows +0.8 in favor of Trump and Wisconsin shows +0.2 in favor of Trump. The odds in national polls have tied, while Trump maintains marginal lead in swing state compared to last week’s polls results.
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Polymarket, a crypto-trading platform is expressing high odds by the betting public in the national race favoring Trump 64.3% over Harris 35.5%. Pennsylvania shows Trump favored 61% over Harris’s 39%. Arizona shows Trump favored 72% over Harris 29%. Georgia shows Trump favored 72% over Harris 29%. Michigan shows Trump favored 55% over Harris 46%. Nevada shows Trump favored 65% over Harris 35%. North Carolina shows Trump favored 68% over Harris 32%. Wisconsin shows Trump favored 56% over Harris 44%. All of the betting odds have shifted in favor of Trump compared to last week’s polls results..
Polls and odds are constantly changing. These numbers were reflected as of Friday, Oct. 25, 2024, at 9 a.m.
How accurate have election odds or polls been in past presidential elections?
The betting favorite has only lost twice since 1866, according to the Conversation, a nonprofit news organization.
The track record on polling is more challenging as different pollsters asking different audiences can often draw higher margins for error.
According to Pew Research, confidence in the public opinion polling has suffered given the errors in the presidential elections of 2016 and 2020.
In both of these general elections, many polls underestimated the appeal of Republican Donald Trump.
This article originally appeared on Erie Times-News: Who’s winning? What polls say now in Pennsylvania, swing states
