The U.S. is in the final stretch of the 2024 presidential election as Republican nominee Donald Trump and Democratic nominee Kamala Harris make their last rounds of interviews and rallies.
It’s an election many Americans believe to be the most consequential in their lifetimes. So, who’s winning the race?
The margins in the polls are thin, but here’s who’s leading in them.
Who is winning the presidential election?
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ABC News project 538 shows Harris leading in the national polls at 48.5% to Trump’s 45.9%, compared to Harris 48.1% to Trump at 45.5% four weeks ago.
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270towin shows Harris leading the national polls by 2.7% over Trump compared to Harris 0.9% over Trump four weeks ago.
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realclearpolling shows the betting odds are in Harris’ favor with a spread of +2.0 over Trump compared to Harris favor of +1.4 over Trump four weeks ago.
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Polymarket, a crypto-trading platform is expressing odds by the betting public, in favor of Trump over Harris by 5.9 percentage points compared to Trump over Harris by 5.9 percentage points four weeks ago.
Polls and odds are constantly changing. These numbers were reflected as of Tuesday, Oct. 8, 2024, at 9:10 a.m.
How accurate have election odds or polls been in past presidential elections?
The betting favorite has only lost twice since 1866, according to the Conversation, a nonprofit news organization.
The track record on polling is more challenging as different pollsters asking different varieties of the population can often draw higher margins for error.
According to Pew Research, confidence in the public’s opinion polling has suffered given the errors in the presidential elections of 2016 and 2020.
In both of these general elections, many polls underestimated the strength of the Republican candidates, including Donald Trump.
This article originally appeared on Oklahoman: Who’s winning the presidential election? A look at the polls this week
