CNN data guru Harry Enten warned that Republicans should not brush off Tuesday night’s election results so fast.
Democrats swept closely watched races in New Jersey, Virginia and New York City on Election Day, with analysts viewing the results as a referendum on President Donald Trump’s agenda. Many analysts, including Enten, have explained that Democrats performed better in areas where Republicans and Trump made gains during last year’s presidential election.
Despite huge wins for the Democratic Party, Republicans have dismissed the election results. Enten pushed against House Majority Leader Steve Scalise’s (R-La.) recent dismissal of the results, in which the Louisiana Republicans suggested that the results on Tuesday do not represent a national shift.
Enten disagreed with Scalise during a CNN appearance on Friday.
“I disagree entirely. I think that the house is on fire. And he’s like the dog saying, ‘This is fine,’” Enten said.
He then explained that the 2024 Democratic presidential candidate, then-Vice President Kamala Harris, won New Jersey by just 6 percentage points. He compared Harris to Democrat Mikie Sherrill, who won the governor’s race over Republican Jack Ciattarelli by about 13 percentage points.
He then pointed to Virginia, where Harris also won by 6 percentage points in 2024. He highlighted that Democrat Abigail Spanberger won the gubernatorial race by about 15 percentage points on Tuesday.
Enten said that if there is a similar shift during the 2026 midterm elections, Democrats could gain up to 20 seats in the House of Representatives.
“If we had, let’s say, an average eight-point shift across the board in all the different House seats, from the 2024 presidential result to then what happened in the 2026 House elections? You would be talking about a Democratic gain of about 20 seats depending on redistricting,” Enten said.
“So when I see those results on Tuesday night, I see these giant, these huge shifts in the Democratic direction. I say Republican leaders: Wake the heck up and have some of what I’m having, because this is a major warning sign,” he added.
Based on historical patterns, Enten said that Democrats have traditionally gone on to win the House after winning elections in New Jersey, Virginia and New York City the previous year.
“The Democrats, when they sweep all three, go on to win the House five out of five times. So it’s the special elections. It’s New Jersey, New York City, Virginia, all those put together…But all those put together usually forecast pain for the Republican party come the midterm elections,” Enten said.
“If I’m Steve Scalise, I am not dismissing these results. I’m going to try and get myself some fire insurance,” he added.
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