The emergence of Vice President Kamala Harris at the top of the Democratic presidential ticket has catapulted new themes and messages — and a new vice presidential candidate — into what is now a sprint for the White House.
Harris introduced Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, her newly minted running mate, last week to large and enthusiastic crowds in presidential swing states.
Although Walz is a Midwestern governor, it’s not a given that he can help Harris win in critical states like Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. Harris declined to tap Josh Shapiro, the Pennsylvania governor who could have provided inroads to the Keystone State’s 19 electoral votes, in favor of Walz, whose state offers 10 electoral votes and hadn’t supported a Republican presidential candidate since 1972.
Harris hopes Walz’s everyman, folksy but tough persona will appeal to a cross-section of Americans.
By adding Walz, Harris also doubled down on a progressive ticket that aims to appeal to working-class voters. They will have to show that their policies, dismissed as too radical by many Republicans, will help families across America.
When President Joe Biden dropped out of the contest in July, former President Donald Trump, 78, lost the ability to use the Democrat’s age and vigor as a campaign target, forcing the Republican to figure out how to unravel Harris and Walz.
As the race settles to a grind, Trump will work to link Harris to problematic issues like inflation, border security and other Biden weak spots. And he’ll continue to label her as too liberal to lead the nation.
Trump, however, is now the old man in the race, and Harris is pounding swing state voters with one central message: It’s time to turn the page on the Trump era.
Therein lies the fascinating tactical battle.
With their early pop culture-type enthusiasm, Harris and Walz are trying to develop a coalition similar to one that propelled Barack Obama to the White House in 2008 and 2012. Those campaigns were more about inspirational messages about the upward direction of the country, not boiler-plate musings on ideology. Obama’s feel-good message attracted not only Democrats but many independents and some cross-over Republicans.
Harris is not Obama and she’s running against Trump, not the late Sen. John McCain, R-Arizona and the 2008 GOP presidential nominee.
Amid a barrage of criticism from Trump about her intelligence and whether she has consistently identified as Black or South Asian, Harris is trying to craft a positive message that makes Trump a symbol of the past.
She would be the first woman elected president, which has added to the early enthusiasm around her campaign.
The problem for Harris and Walz is that it will be easy for Trump — if he stays on message — to tie them to progressive policies that could rally conservatives and offset Democratic Party enthusiasm.
Harris, a former prosecutor, attorney general and senator, is from liberal San Francisco. Walz, a former high school teacher, football coach and Army National Guardsman, is from one of the most liberal states in America.
Trump has described them as the “most radical left duo in American history.”
Many of the Republican’s attacks have been aimed at Walz.
As Minnesota governor, he has supported gender-affirming care for minors, codifying abortion rights in state law and providing free college tuition for families earning less than $80,000 a year, including unauthorized immigrants. He also supports allowing unauthorized immigrants to be eligible for a driver’s license and state-sponsored health care for low-income residents.
These positions are more progressive than positions Walz took as a member of Congress representing a rural Minnesota swing district.
Still, Harris believes Walz has crossover appeal and matches up favorably against Republican vice presidential candidate JD Vance.
Vance, once a Trump critic, is a 39-year-old Marine veteran who could be seen as the future of the GOP.
But the U.S. senator from Ohio has been criticized for past remarks about women, such as dismissing some Democrats as “childless cat ladies.”
Democrats hope issues around abortion rights will lead to broad support among women. Vance’s record of opposing abortion, even in cases of rape and incest, is in stark contrast with Walz.
Because of the clear contrast both tickets have on issues, the presidential race will be a turnout battle in most of the nation, including Texas, where Trump will be favored to beat Harris. Democrats, however, feel better about keeping the race closer than when Biden was on the ballot. The margin of the Trump-Harris race could determine the fate of down-ballot contests, including the Senate race between U.S. Rep. Colin Allred, D-Dallas, and Republican incumbent U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz.
Though the vice presidential contenders are in the news today, history shows they will fade to the backdrop.
The campaign will be mostly about Harris and Trump, who are scheduled for a Sept. 10 debate on ABC, an event that could be make or break for both candidates. Additional debates, and a matchup between Vance and Walz, are being discussed.
After that, it’s the kick to the finish. Trump is a veteran of two presidential campaigns but often goes off script and can create controversy at any moment.
Harris dropped out of the 2020 presidential primary race before the Iowa Democratic caucus, so she has to prove she has the fortitude to go the distance.
Election season surprises notwithstanding, the outcome of the presidential contest likely hinges on whether Harris can continue her momentum and detach from Biden’s negatives, or if Trump can find the discipline to stay on message and use his rivals’ progressive backgrounds against them.
