Friday afternoon’s lone Premier League match is massive.
Wolverhampton, currently in last place with 17 points, is almost certain to be relegated, but West Ham United is right in the thick of the battle for survival.
The Hammers come into Friday’s tilt in 18th place on 29 points and would climb out of the relegation zone, leaping over Tottenham Hotspur, with a win.
Anything short of a victory for the Hammers would be a critical blow for the chances of survival, as their schedule stiffens up considerably after this visit from Wolves.
Wolverhampton vs. West Ham United
Wolves have been in last place for essentially the entire season, and they’ve been a near-certainty for relegation for months, but something has changed with this team in recent weeks.
Perhaps it’s the freedom that comes with knowing your fate is already sealed, or maybe it’s positive regression, but whatever the case may be, it seems that Rob Edwards has this team trending in the right direction, albeit way too late.
Wolverhampton, which started the season on a 20-match winless streak, is unbeaten in its last three and has just two losses in its last seven contests. Wolves defeated Aston Villa and Liverpool, and drew with Arsenal, in that span.
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The numbers are still ugly — Wolverhampton has conceded nearly 18 expected goals in those seven matches — but the leakiness on defense could be down to the fact that Green is allowing his players to take on more risk, given they have nothing to lose.
The opposite is true of West Ham. Like many teams embroiled in a relegation scrap, the Hammers are putting an emphasis on defense and structure, in order to grind out every point they can from now until the end of the season.
To their credit, West Ham have improved their defensive play considerably in recent weeks. But the problem with this pragmatic approach in this instance is that West Ham is the better team in this matchup. Their best path to success is to try to go out and win the game, rather than try not to lose.
Wolves will be playing with wind in their sails on Friday, and I like their chances against a West Ham side that can’t afford to make any mistakes.
Take the underdog in this massive relegation scrap.
The Play: Wolves moneyline (+340, FanDuel)
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
