The “world’s most accurate economist” is predicting Donald Trump will win the presidency and that Republicans are likely to take full control of Congress on Nov. 5.
Christophe Barraud, the chief economist and strategist at Market Securities Monaco, also says a Trump win could boost the economy short-term but pose longer-term complications, particularly with the soaring deficit.
“Looking at different metrics such as betting markets, polls, election modelers’ forecasts, financial markets, as of now, the most probable outcomes are: [1] #Trump victory [2] #GOP clean sweep,” Barraud wrote on X.
Barraud, 38, has been ranked as the best economic forecaster for the US economy in 11 of the past 12 years by Bloomberg — earning him the nickname “world’s most accurate economist.”
The French economist said all signs point to a Trump victory and a GOP Senate takeover, and while the House of Representatives could be more tricky for Republicans to control, as of now, it appears they will be victorious.
But if Vice President Kamala Harris wins the presidency, there will likely be a continuation of the status-quo split control of Congress, Barraud said during an interview with Business Insider.
If Trump wins and for some reason control of Congress splits between the parties, he would see much of his domestic-economic agenda stalled and therefore would likely focus on tariffs, something that could slow the US economy long-term and hamper global growth, the expert added.
In what Barraud views as the most likely scenario — a Republican sweep of the White House and Congress — he then sees a gross domestic product bump between about 2.1% and 2.3% in 2025.
Regardless of who is in the White House, the US economy would likely hum along, at least in the short term, Barraud said.
Still, a major potential risk with Trump is that he slashes taxes without a means of paying for it and thus explodes the deficit, Barraud said.
He said he believes the 10-year Treasury Bond yield would initially jump to 4.5%, up from about 4.29%, under Trump. From there, he believes it will tick up to about 5%.
Barraud believes that overall, a Trump White House would mean the US GDP would likely outpace most consensus forecasts that expect 2.6% growth in 2024 and 1.8% in 2025.
The most recent polls generally show the presidential race currently as a toss-up contest, although Trump leads in the RealClearPolitics aggregate of national polling and battleground-state polling.
So-called election “Nostradamus” historian Dr. Allan Lichtman, who has predicted nine out of the 10 past elections, is betting on Harris to pull off the win.
Famed polling data guru Nate Silver has indicated that his gut says Trump will win. The election is just eight days away.
