Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky would have a strong chance at reelection if there was a vote according to recent polls conducted by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS).
Newsweek reached out to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine for comment via email.
Why It Matters
Zelensky has been a central figure in Ukraine’s resistance since Russia invaded in 2022. He was elected president in 2019 and would have faced reelection in 2024, but the country has been under martial law since the invasion. Zelensky has not said whether or not he will seek reelection as he continues to focus on the war.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky speaks at a press conference in Kyiv, Ukraine, on February 19, 2025.
TETIANA DZHAFAROVA/Associated Press
What To Know
Polls have shown that Zelensky’s approval rating has dipped since he took office in 2019, though they still remain above water.
Zelensky’s popularity in Ukraine was once at 90 percent, and has since dropped to the mid 50s range.
Following the outbreak of the war in 2022, polls have shown that the vast majority of Ukrainians have approved of the way Zelensky has handled the conflict with Russia.
Previous polls by KIIS found that trust in Zelensky dropped from 90 percent after Russia’s invasion to 77 percent in December 2023. The Ukrainian sociological organization also found that his approval rating reached 64 percent in February 2024, and 59 percent by May 2024.
The platform Ukraine Elections Polls and Ratings posted Ukraine’s Center for Social and Market Research’s (SOCIS) latest poll looking at public perception of Ukraine’s potential presidential candidates conducted for several months in late 2024. The poll that surveyed 2,000 respondents found that Zelensky came second, with 24.3 percent of the votes, to Valerii Zaluzhnyi, a former Ukrainian military chief who received 36.1 percent of the vote. Other candidates that respondents found favorable included former President Petro Poroshenko, the People’s Deputy of Ukraine Dmytro Razumkov, and former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko.
Alongside KIIS, Olga Onuch of the University of Manchester, Henry Hale of George Washington University, Volodymyr Kulyk of The Kyiv School of Economics, and Gwendolyn Sasse of Humboldt University conducted surveys in Ukraine since 2014 and found that Zelensky commands 32 percent to 41 percent support among likely voters, “far ahead of rivals like former President Petro Poroshenko and Dmytro Razumkov,” according to the University of Manchester’s press release.
The president won the 2019 election for a five-year term, easily defeating Poroshenko with by nearly 50 points.
Kyiv implemented martial law shortly after Russia’s invasion, and the nation’s laws state that while martial law is in place, the country cannot hold presidential elections. Zelensky recently extended martial law and mobilization until May 9, 2025.
Is Zelensky’s Approval Rating 4 Percent?
In a press conference at Mar-a-Lago on Tuesday, U.S. President Donald Trump pushed Ukraine to hold elections, as it was discussed during peace talks between Russia and the U.S. in Saudi Arabia. He said that Zelensky is “down at 4 percent approval rating” and that it has been a “long time since they’ve had an election.”
However, there is no evidence to back up Trump’s statement that Zelensky’s approval rating has declined to such a low figure, as the latest poll conducted by KIIS between February 4 and February 9 showed that there was a slight increase in Ukraine’s trust in their leader since December.
The poll published by KIIS on February 19 showed 57 percent of Ukrainians surveyed said that they trust Zelensky, up from the 52 percent who said the same in December.
What People Are Saying
Newsweek spoke to Onuch, a professor in Comparative and Ukrainian Politics at the University of Manchester, about Zelensky’s chances for a second term if Ukraine held elections.
Onuch said: “The numbers tell us that out of all the civilian politicians that might be potential candidates, he [Zelensky] is by far the front-runner. That is an undisputed empirical fact. If we put in some very popular generals, they may or may not poll at around the same rating that he does. Either way, he would be in the runoff at the very least. He remains the most popular politician in Ukraine, and any suggestion otherwise is an attempt to manipulate facts on the ground.”
She also emphasized that elections cannot be had when martial law is being upheld: “Suggesting that it is even remotely possible to hold an election when there hasn’t been a cessation of violence, and that a peace has been reached—it’s not possible to hold an election safely or even logistically.”
Onuch added: “Let’s be clear on what the problem is—it’s that the Russians would attack places where the ballots are being printed. The Russians would attack the transport vehicles that would try to get ballots to different places. The Russians would attack the places where Ukrainians could vote. The Russians would try to cut the electricity like they did last night in Odesa. That would be the problem of holding an election when you don’t have a cessation to violence or a peace agreement that is just. That would make it literally impossible and extremely immoral to suggest to citizens, you have a choice to defend your political rights, but in order to do so, you’re going to have to risk violence. You’re going to have to risk death potentially and injury to yourself and your family members. Now, I think anyone across the world would understand that that’s not feasible.”
Newsweek also spoke to Elena Davlikanova, a Democracy Fellow with the Center for European Policy Analysis who is focused on Ukrainian and Russian domestic issues.
Davilkanova said: “In the midst of war, it is impossible to predict whether Ukrainians will reelect President Volodymyr Zelensky, as election outcomes depend on multiple factors—including the list of candidates, the success of both information and disinformation campaigns, and the course of the war itself. As of December 2024, 52 percent of Ukrainians trusted President Zelensky.”
She added: “If the goal of talks on potential reelection is to suggest that removing him would pave the way for a weak or pro-Russian candidate—one willing to legitimize Ukraine’s territorial dismemberment, undermine its future as an independent democracy, and ultimately facilitate its subjugation to Russia—this is a grave miscalculation. If, through information manipulation, a candidate who embraces this path were to gain power and attempt its implementation, it would likely result in yet another revolution.”
“Underestimating the Ukrainian people—who have determined their fate three times through revolutions and who stopped the world’s second-largest army in early 2022—is both dangerous and perplexing. Any elections in Ukraine can only take place 6 to 10 months after the lifting of martial law, which itself depends on achieving sustainable peace. However, such peace is unattainable without clear and binding security guarantees. This is especially critical at a time when trust among global partners is at its lowest and when Ukraine has already witnessed at different occasions broken security guarantees from major powers, including the United States, the United Kingdom, Russia, and China.”
What Happens Next
Zelensky responded to Trump’s statement regarding elections in Ukraine and said that the U.S. president is living in a “disinformation space” and said that he has a high approval rating. It is unknown when Ukraine will hold its next election.
