Xavier Becerra’s lead over Steve Hilton shrinks in new California governor poll

Democratic gubernatorial candidate Xavier Becerra’s lead over Republican rival Steve Hilton has shrunk dramatically in a new statewide poll, with the two candidates now separated by just eight points.

Becerra leads Hilton 49.2% to 41% among likely November voters, while 9.8% remain undecided, according to a new poll shared exclusively with the California Post.

The result is far tighter than a Berkeley poll released days earlier that showed Becerra with a commanding 18-point advantage.

Crucially, Becerra falls below the 50% mark for the first time in the general-election polling – leaving the Democratic frontrunner short of majority support with just over two months until Election Day.

“Xavier Becerra’s support is collapsing as more and more Californians learn about his horrific record as HHS Secretary, sending thousands of Latino kids into the clutches of child sex and labor traffickers,” Hilton told the Post.

“He thinks he’s going to coast to victory as part of the corrupt Sacramento machine, but this poll shows that Californians have had enough and are now rising up to throw out the insiders and vote for the change we so desperately need.”

“Becerra is running away from the press, running away from debates, but he can’t run from who he is: an arrogant 36-year career politician pushing more of the same cost and corruption we’ve had to put up with in California over 16 years of one party rule,” Hilton said.

The Becerra campaign did not return the Post’s request for comment on the poll.

The poll of 912 California registered voters was commissioned by Hilton and conducted by David Wolfson, a pollster and faculty member in Columbia University’s Political Analytics graduate program, between August 14 and 16.

The Wolfson poll has a 3.3-point margin of sampling error at the 95% confidence level and was conducted using MMS text-to-web methodology.

The results are a significantly tighter than the August 3 to 9 Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies/Los Angeles Times poll, which found the former HHS secretary under Biden leading Hilton 55% to 37% among 2,310 likely voters.

The survey showed Becerra’s lead narrowing from 21 points in Berkeley’s previous head-to-head poll in May, but still leaving the Democrat with a sizable advantage

But the Wolfson poll suggests the race could be considerably more competitive – although the different sample sizes, methodologies and field dates make direct comparisons imperfect.

Hilton’s 41% showing is particularly notable because Republicans made up 31.6% of the likely-voter electorate in the Wolfson survey.

The poll also found 25.2% view Hilton ‘very favorably,’ more than twice Becerra’s 11.5%.

Becerra’s 49.2% support was much closer to the 46.9% share of the electorate identifying as Democratic. 

When undecided voters are allocated according to their stated preferences, Becerra’s lead grows to 54.5% to 45.5%, the poll found. 

The survey also found widespread dissatisfaction with the direction of California, with 55.9% of likely voters saying the state is on the “wrong track,” compared with 24.6% who said the state was headed in the right direction. 

Becerra also faces weaker personal ratings than Hilton in the latest survey.

Just 37.2% view Becerra favorably, compared with 49.8% who view him unfavorably, giving him a negative 12.6-point rating.

Becerra’s poor ratings come despite being well known, with just 4.4% of voters saying they had never heard of him.

Hilton’s numbers are closer to even, with 41.5% favorable and 44.6% unfavorable. 

Nearly one-third of the November electorate – 32.9% – is either undecided or not firmly committed to its current choice, potentially leaving a sizable pool of voters still up for grabs.

And among voters who have picked a candidate, only 74.5% say they will definitely vote for that person.

The race has also produced signs of potential strength for Hilton in key parts of the state.

A June University of California, Irvine poll found Hilton narrowly leading Becerra 47% to 44% among Orange County voters, an important swing region in Southern California.

Earlier polling had painted a much different statewide picture.

A May IGS survey showed Becerra ahead of Hilton 52% to 31% among registered voters.

The 2026 California general election will take place on November 3, 2026.

Mail-in-ballots will be sent out starting in October.

Download The California Post App, follow us on social, and subscribe to our newsletters