Some afternoon baseball is on tap for a light sports schedule on Thursday.
Carlos Rodon is expected to match up with Slade Cecconi as the Yankees finish out their three-game set against the Cleveland Guardians.
Since two uneven starts to begin his injury-delayed campaign, Rodon has rebounded nicely, allowing two earned runs in his last 11 innings pitched while striking out 10.
His peripheral stats show he’s been excellent as well, with his .174 expected batting average allowed among the best in all of baseball.
His counterpart isn’t on the same level in terms of allowing hard contact. Cecconi boasts strong strikeout potential, but he allows far too much loud contact.
Opposing batters have an xBA of .270, one of the worst in baseball among qualified starting pitchers.
The Yankees have opened as -160 favorites on Thursday afternoon, as they should be.
Though that is not a bettable number.
If you think the Yankees are live on the run line (-1.5), that comes in at +130.
I’d prefer to wager on Rodon’s strikeout prop, though that’s not released at the time of writing. Rodon’s strikeout prop has been 4.5, 5.5, 5.5, and 6.5, with wins coming half the time.
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The most recent total of 6.5 was too high, considering he struck out three last time.
However, if there is a chance to wager Rodon’s strikeout prop at 5.5 or even 4.5, I’d certainly be looking to take the plunge.
Rodon is striking out 24.7 percent of batters, well above average.
The Guardians are tough to punch out (fourth fewest strikeouts per game in baseball), which is why I think the total could be lower than his last showing.
I’m bullish on Rodon to rack some K’s in this one and think the Bombers could get to Cecconi early.
Target the Yankees first-five moneyline (-120, Fanatics) and keep an eye on Rodon’s strikeout prop as lines release on Thursday morning.
THE PLAYS: Yankees F5 innings moneyline (-120, Fanatics) | Rodon strikeout prop over when released
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