The Yankees and Red Sox open a crucial four-game series Friday night in The Bronx.
Only two games separate the eternal rivals in the standings, and both clubs need every win they can muster to stay within striking distance of the Tampa Bay Rays in the AL East.
The Bronx Bombers are four back of Tampa, while the BoSox are six adrift.
The Yankees have a clear pitching edge Friday night with Cam Schlittler set to take on Patrick Sandoval.
That advantage is reflected in the betting odds, as the Yanks check in as a -150 favorite.
Yankees vs. Red Sox odds, prediction
While the Yankees offense has sputtered through the summer thanks to injuries to Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, and Cody Bellinger, the Red Sox have come to life with the bat.
Since July 1, Boston ranks fourth in wOBA (.325), second in wRC+ (118) and second in WAR (10.3).
Schlittler has been sensational and is the rightful favorite to win the Cy Young Award, but this will be a tough assignment, especially since his walk rate has ticked up over his last few starts.
Sandoval also figures to have his hands full Friday, though that has more to do with his profile than the Yankee lineup.
The best path to quieting the Pinstripes is by getting them to swing and miss, but that’s just not Sandoval’s game. He ranks in the 46th percentile in strikeout rate this season.
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Furthermore, Sandoval’s weakness plays into one of the strengths of the Yankees’ lineup, as he issues plenty of walks.
The Bronx Bombers may not pack the punch they once did with Judge and Stanton, but they can still work a count.
I expect both lineups to contribute to this total, but the pitching matchup clearly favors the home team, so I’ll wrap the Yankees moneyline with the Over 7 runs in a same-game parlay.
Same-game parlay: Yankees moneyline + Over 7 runs (+160, FanDuel)
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
