Who is going to win the 2024 presidential election? It depends on which leading predictor you ask.
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Polls have shown the Democratic nominee, Vice President Kamala Harris, and her Republican contender, former President Donald Trump, locked in a dead heat nationally and in several swing states.
Experts who think Harris will win
Allan Lichtman, a historian and professor at American University known for accurately predicting presidential elections, has said he believes Vice President Kamala Harris will win. He first made the prediction in September, and this week, said he stands by his call.
“I don’t change my prediction on the fly in response to the polls or the conventional wisdom,” Lichtman told our sister station, FOX 5 DC, this week. “If I did that, I’d be useless as a forecaster. Might as well just go with the polls.”
“I stood by my prediction in 2016 when the pollsters were virtually unanimously against it.” Allan Lichtman
Lichtman relies on what he calls the “13 Keys to the White House” to make his predictions, instead of conventional polling. Four of the keys are based on a candidate’s politics, seven are based on performance and two are based on personality.
“I stood by my prediction in 2016 when the pollsters were virtually unanimously against it,” added Lichtman, who correctly predicted Trump’s win against Hillary Clinton.
In a The New York Times op-ed last week, longtime Democratic strategist James Carville also said he’s “certain” Harris will win.
“Today I am pulling my stool up to the political poker table to throw my chips all in: America, it will all be OK. Ms. Harris will be elected the next President of the United States,” Carville wrote.
Experts who think Trump will win
Nate Silver, a statistician and founder of FiveThirtyEight, wrote last week in another op-ed for the New York Times that his “gut says” Trump will win.
However, Silver also warned that “a 50-50 forecast really does mean 50-50,” and that polling data indicates the race really could go either way.
“Don’t be surprised if a relatively decisive win for one of the candidates is in the cards — or if there are bigger shifts from 2020 than most people’s guts might tell them,” Silver added.
FiveThirtyEight, which uses polling, economic and demographic data to explore likely election outcomes, says Trump wins 52 times out of 100 in its simulations of the 2024 race.
Christophe Barraud, the chief economist and strategist at Market Securities Monaco and sometimes described as “the world’s most accurate economist,” also predicted a Trump win – with Republicans also predicted to take back control of Congress in a “clean sweep.”
Barraud, 38, has been ranked the best economic forecaster for the U.S. economy by Bloomberg every year since 2012, according to FOX News.
Barraud told Business Insider that if Trump wins with Congress split between parties, his ability to cut taxes for corporations and households could be stalled. Trump would therefore focus on tariffs, which could hurt global growth, he added.
Harris vs Trump: Today’s presidential polls
Harris and Trump remain virtually tied with less than a week until Election Day, according to the most recent polls. Harris has maintained a razor-thin edge nationally, but Trump appears to be gaining ground in key swing states.
According to 270toWin, Harris maintains an edge in national polls. An average of 17-plus national polls showed Harris up by 1 percentage point as of Wednesday, Oct. 30.
Polling in the seven key battleground states, which will decide the outcome of the election, show Trump is slightly ahead in most swing states.
All the polls are extremely close and within the margin of error.
Latest presidential polls in swing states
Arizona polls
An average of nine polls, the most recent on Oct. 29, shows Trump with a 2.2% lead in Arizona, a swing state with 11 electoral votes up for grabs.
Georgia polls
An average of six polls, the most recent on Oct. 29, shows Trump up 2% in Georgia, a swing state with 16 electoral votes.
Michigan polls
An average of nine polls, the most recent on Oct. 30, shows Harris with a 1.6% lead in Michigan, a swing state with 15 electoral votes.
Nevada polls
An average of seven polls, the most recent on Oct. 29, show Trump with a .4% lead in Nevada, a swing state with six electoral votes.
North Carolina polls
An average of nine polls, the most recent on Oct. 29, shows Trump with a 1.4% lead in North Carolina, a swing state with 16 electoral votes.
Pennsylvania polls
An average of eight polls, the most recent on Oct. 29, shows Trump with a .5% lead in Pennsylvania, a swing state with 19 electoral votes. Harris was up in Pennsylvania a day earlier, showing just how close the race is in the Keystone State.
Wisconsin polls
An average of seven polls, the most recent on Oct. 29, shows Trump with a .2% lead in Wisconsin. Harris had a .4% lead in the Wisconsin polls a day earlier.
270 to Win Election Map
It will take 270 electoral votes to win the 2024 presidential election. Click states on this interactive map to create your own 2024 election forecast. Create a specific match-up by clicking the party and/or names near the electoral vote counter. Source: 270toWin.
Click HERE if you’re having trouble viewing on mobile.
How many days until Election Day?
Election Day is Tuesday, Nov. 5, 6 days from Wednesday.
What time do polls open on Election Day?
Polls are open at 6 a.m. on Election Day, Tuesday, Nov. 5.
What time do polls open on Election Day?
Polls close at 9 p.m. on Election Day, Tuesday, Nov. 5.
