2025 Emmys Lead Actress Drama Predictions

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

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Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series Commentary (Updated March 28, 2025): Kathy Bates has returned triumphantly to network television with her role in “Matlock.’ She delivers a masterclass in gravitas and wit that reminds audiences why she’s one of our most beloved veterans. Her Critics Choice win for the CBS drama shows, she’s one of the frontrunners. It’s been a decade since a woman from a network TV show has won this category — Viola Davis for ABC’s “How to Get Away with Murder,” and 11 years since CBS has taken home this category with Julianna Margulies for “The Good Wife” in 2014.

Bella Ramsey’s emotionally raw performance in the second season of “The Last of Us” will be plenty for voters to consider. It showcases an impressive range for such a young actor in a genre often overlooked by awards bodies.

Keri Russell’s turn in “The Diplomat” is an expert display of controlled chaos, balancing vulnerability with political savvy. Her first-season nomination marked a strong continuation of her momentum post-“The Americans,” and Netflix will be pushing this show hard. Russell’s streamer sister Nicola Coughlan, who broke out from the ensemble of “Bridgerton,” delivers a standout season that’s refreshingly complex, pushing the boundaries of what a period drama lead can be. The SAG nomination undoubtedly helped her chances.

Britt Lower, often seen as an underdog in this category, brings haunting nuance to her role(s) in Apple’s “Severance. ” She thrives on psychological tension and fractured identities, and her work on the cerebral drama is only getting better.

Elisabeth Moss returns with the final season of “The Handmaid’s Tale,” a performance that remains unflinching and timely as the series heads toward its endgame.

There will be more to consider as the campaigns gear up.

See Emmy Award predictions below:

Variety Awards Circuit: Oscars

(The list of predicted nominees and contenders is incomplete and will be updated every Thursday throughout the TV Awards season.)

And the Predicted Contenders Are:

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More Information (Lead Actress Drama)

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About the Primetime Emmy Awards

The Primetime Emmy Awards, commonly known as the Emmys, are awarded by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences (ATAS). Established in 1949, these celebrate outstanding achievements in American primetime television. The Emmys are categorized into three divisions: the Primetime Emmy Awards for performance and production excellence; the Primetime Creative Arts Emmy Awards, recognizing achievements in artistry and craftsmanship; and the Primetime Engineering Emmy Awards, which honor significant engineering and technological advancements. The eligibility period typically extends from June 1 to May 31 each year. The Television Academy hosts the Emmys and has over 20,000 members across 30 professional peer groups, including performers, directors, producers, art directors, artisans and executives.

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