2025 Oscars Best Actress Predictions

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

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Best Actress commentary (Updated Feb. 6, 2025): The acclaim for Fernanda Torres’ performance in “I’m Still Here” is so well-deserved. In the devastating real-life drama, she delivers a haunting portrayal of Eunice Paiva, a woman whose husband was arrested by Brazil’s military police in 1970 and vanished without a trace. The film, which premiered at the Venice Film Festival to a 10-minute standing ovation, has cemented its status as one of the year’s most influential works. And at 59, Torres finds herself at the center of a career-defining moment, with critics and industry insiders hailing her performance as a towering achievement. The deck is stacked without a SAG, Critics Choice, or BAFTA nomination, but in this strange and unpredictable year — Why not?

But standing in her way is a formidable opponent: Demi Moore.

At 62, Moore has done what many thought impossible: secured her first Academy Award nomination for best actress. Her fearless, physically demanding turn in Coralie Fargeat’s body horror thriller “The Substance” is unlike anything she has done before. In the film, which satirizes Hollywood’s obsession with youth and beauty, Moore’s character undergoes a grotesque transformation after consuming a mysterious product promising eternal perfection. The result is raw, disturbing, and utterly transfixing.

Moore’s nod feels both unexpected and long overdue. A box-office superstar of the ‘80s and ‘90s, she was long dismissed by the industry’s prestige circles despite acclaimed performances in “Ghost” and “G.I. Jane.” Now, with a Golden Globe win in her arsenal and undeniable momentum, she is closer than ever to rewriting that narrative.

Torres, however, has her own advantages. “I’m Still Here” is a historical, deeply emotional, and politically charged prestige drama. It’s the kind of film that traditionally thrives in this category, much like past winners such as Brie Larson in “Room” or Julianne Moore in “Still Alice.” Moreover, the Academy has shown an increasing willingness to recognize international talent in lead acting categories, as seen with Marion Cotillard (“La Vie en Rose”).

If Moore wins, she will become only the third best actress winner to be directed by a woman nominated for best director — following Frances McDormand in “Nomadland” and Holly Hunter in “The Piano.” At 62, she would also become the sixth-oldest woman to take home the award.

The best actress race remains in flux, with the Screen Actors Guild Awards and BAFTA still in play (which doesn’t have Torres nominated). Will Torres’ harrowing dramatic turn prove too powerful to ignore? Or will Moore’s transformative performance and industry narrative push her over the finish line?

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Variety Awards Circuit: Oscars

The 97th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 2. All movie listings, titles, distributors, and credited artisans are not final and are subject to change.

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About the Academy Awards

The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Nineteen branches are represented within the nearly 11,000-person membership. The branches are actors, animators, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films, sound, visual effects and writers.

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