2025 Oscars Best Director Predictions

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

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2025 Oscars Predictions:
Best Director

Weekly Commentary (Updated Nov. 21, 2024): Will this year’s Oscars miss the mark by not recognizing women directors once again?

In an era where the lines between politics and Hollywood are more blurred than ever, the Academy’s longlist for Best Director feels noticeably sparse regarding women in contention. With the Directors Branch limited to just five nomination slots, the industry is left questioning whether any female directors will make the cut this year. Following the much-discussed Oscar snub of Greta Gerwig for “Barbie” in 2023, it’s another stark reminder of the challenges women continue to face in maintaining a steady presence in Oscar history.

Looking at the Academy’s nearly century-long track record, the statistics are telling. Since the inception of the Oscars, 601 films have been nominated for Best Picture, but only 22 of those were directed by women—a figure that underscores the ongoing disparity. However, the 2024 nominations did mark a historic milestone: for the first time, three of the ten Best Picture nominees—Justine Triet’s “Anatomy of a Fall,” Greta Gerwig’s “Barbie,” and Celine Song’s “Past Lives”—were directed by women. This surpasses the previous record and reflects a recent, gradual shift toward broader recognition of female-led storytelling. Notably, in five separate years—2009, 2010, 2020, 2021, and 2023—two female-directed films have made the Best Picture cut, suggesting some progress, albeit incremental.

Despite these gains, only eight women have been nominated for Best Director in the Oscars’ 96-year history. These trailblazing filmmakers include Lina Wertmüller for “Seven Beauties,” Jane Campion for both “The Piano” and “The Power of the Dog,” Sofia Coppola for “Lost in Translation,” Kathryn Bigelow for “The Hurt Locker,” Greta Gerwig for “Lady Bird,” Chloé Zhao for “Nomadland,” Emerald Fennell for “Promising Young Woman,” and, most recently, Justine Triet for “Anatomy of a Fall.” These figures, while encouraging, highlight a glaring gap that continues to raise questions about equity and representation in the industry.

So, which female auteurs might break through this year in a director lineup likely to include established names like Jacques Audiard and Ridley Scott and rising talents such as Sean Baker and Brady Corbet?

One strong, albeit unconventional, contender is Coralie Fargeat, whose genre-defying horror film “The Substance” has captivated audiences. Though genre bias and the film’s graphic content pose substantial obstacles, Fargeat’s work offers an arresting vision that challenges traditional cinematic boundaries. “The Substance” unfolds in three distinct chapters, centering on Elisabeth Sparkle (played by Demi Moore), a beloved aerobics star whose life is upended when she’s abruptly fired on her 50th birthday. Offered a mysterious serum that transforms her into an idealized version of her 20-year-old self, Elisabeth embarks on a disturbing journey that blends body horror with dark satire—a provocative commentary on beauty, age, and identity. Fargeat’s imaginative storytelling and daring visuals make “The Substance” a unique, though polarizing, contender that some argue would be a refreshing addition to the Best Director race.

Payal Kapadia is another hopeful in the running, whose film “All We Imagine as Light” drew acclaim at Cannes, where it won runner-up. Although India’s selection committee did not submit it as the country’s official entry for Best International Feature, distributors Janus Films and Sideshow are mounting a significant campaign for Kapadia. Their strategy mirrors Justine Triet’s “Anatomy of a Fall,” which won the Oscar for Original Screenplay despite not being chosen by France for the international feature category. “All We Imagine as Light” has resonated with critics and audiences alike, its lyrical storytelling and socio-political undertones offering a rich and nuanced portrait that could make it an unexpected, yet deserving, choice for recognition.

We also have Halina Rejin, writer and director of “Babygirl,” harnessing another knockout performance from Nicole Kidman that could factor into the conversation.

As the Academy contemplates its selections, the glaring question remains: will it continue to overlook the groundbreaking work of women directors, or will it finally broaden its vision to include these deserving voices? With contenders like Fargeat and Kapadia offering distinct and timely perspectives, the Oscars have a chance to honor the full scope of talent reshaping the cinematic landscape. For now, the race remains open — teetering between traditional choices and the potential for long-overdue recognition.

Read: You can see all Academy Award predictions in all 23 categories on one page on the Variety Awards Circuit: Oscars.

The 97th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 2. All movie listings, titles, distributors, and credited artisans are not final and are subject to change.

** denotes the film is not yet dated or can open in 2025.

And the Predicted Nominees Are

Next in Line

Other Contenders

Also In Contention

Eligible Titles (Best Director)

** This list is incomplete and not yet finalized. Not all films have distribution or release dates. All are subject to change.

• Fede Álvarez — “Alien: Romulus” (20th Century Studios)

• Payal Kapadia — “All We Imagine as Light” (Janus Films/Sideshow)

• Sean Baker — “Anora” (Neon)

• Ali Abbasi — “The Apprentice” (Briarcliff Entertainment)

• Halina Reijn — “Babygirl” (A24)

• Tim Burton — “Beetlejuice Beetlejuice” (Warner Bros.)

• Michael Gracey — “Better Man” (Paramount Pictures)

• Nathan Silver — “Between the Temples” (Sony Pictures Classics)

• Jeff Nichols — “The Bikeriders” (Focus Features)

• Andrea Arnold — “Bird” (Mubi)

• Zoë Kravitz — “Blink Twice” (Amazon MGM)

• Steve McQueen — “Blitz” (Apple Original Films)

• Reinaldo Marcus Green — “Bob Marley: One Love” (Paramount Pictures)

• Brady Corbet — “The Brutalist” (A24)

• Luca Guadagnino — “Challengers” (Amazon MGM)

• Alex Garland — “Civil War” (A24)

• James Mangold — “A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)

• Edward Berger — “Conclave” (Focus Features)

• Christy Hall — “Daddio” (Sony Pictures Classics)

• Natalie Rae and Angela Patton — “Daughters” (Netflix)

• Shawn Levy — “Deadpool & Wolverine” (Marvel Studios)

• Chris Renaud — “Despicable Me 4” (Illumination/Universal Pictures)

• Aaron Schimberg — “A Different Man” (A24)

• Sean Wang — “Dìdi” (Focus Features)

• Embeth Davidtz — “Don’t Let’s Go to the Dogs Tonight” (No U.S. Distribution) **

• Denis Villeneuve — “Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)

• RJ Cutler — “Elton John: Never Too Late” (Walt Disney Pictures)

• Jacques Audiard — “Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)

• Joshua Oppenheimer — “The End” (Neon)

• Ryusuke Hamaguchi — “Evil Does Not Exist” (Sideshow)

• Erica Tremblay — “Fancy Dance” (Apple Original Films)

• Rachel Morrison — “The Fire Inside” (Amazon MGM)

• Karim Aïnouz — “Firebrand” (Roadside Attractions)

• Gints Zilbalodis — “Flow” (Janus Films/Sideshow)

• Carla Gutierrez — “Frida” (Amazon MGM)

• Max Eggers and Sam Eggers — “The Front Room” (A24)

• George Miller — “Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga” (Warner Bros.)

• Ridley Scott — “Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)

• Mike Leigh — “Hard Truths” (Bleecker Street)

• Robert Zemeckis — “Here” (Sony Pictures)

• Scott Beck and Bryan Woods — “Heretic” (A24)

• Azazel Jacobs — “His Three Daughters” (Netflix)

• Richard Linklater — “Hit Man” (Netflix)

• Kevin Costner — “Horizon: An American Saga — Chapter 1” (Warner Bros.)

• Irene Taylor — “I Am Celine Dion” (Amazon MGM)

• Jane Schoenbrun — “I Saw the TV Glow” (A24)

• Walter Salles — “I’m Still Here” (Sony Pictures Classics)

• Michael Showalter — “The Idea of You” (Amazon MGM)

• John Krasinski — “IF” (Paramount Pictures)

• Yoshiyuki Momose — “The Imaginary” (Netflix)

• Alessandra Lacorazza Samudio — “In the Summers” (Music Box Films)

• Justin Baldoni — “It Ends With Us” (Sony Pictures)

• Annie Baker — “Janet Planet” (A24)

• Todd Phillips — “Joker: Folie à Deux” (Warner Bros.)

• Yorgos Lanthimos — “Kinds of Kindness” (Searchlight Pictures)

• Wes Ball — “Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes” (20th Century Studios)

• Rich Peppiatt — “Kneecap” (Sony Pictures Classics)

• Gia Coppola — “The Last Showgirl” (Roadside Attractions)

• Ellen Kuras — “Lee” (Roadside Attractions)

• Osgood Perkins — “Longlegs” (Neon)

• Rose Glass — “Love Lies Bleeding” (A24)

• Pablo Larraín — “Maria” (Netflix)

• Francis Ford Coppola — “Megalopolis” (Lionsgate)

• Adam Elliot — “Memoir of a Snail” (IFC Films)

• Alain Guiraudie — “Misericordia” (Janus Films)

• David Derrick Jr. — “Moana 2” (Walt Disney Pictures)

• Dev Patel — “Monkey Man” (Universal Pictures)

• Michel Hazanavicius — “The Most Precious of Cargoes” (StudioCanal)

• Benoît Delhomme — “Mothers’ Instinct” (Neon)

• Barry Jenkins — “Mufasa: The Lion King” (Walt Disney Pictures)

• Megan Park — “My Old Ass” (Amazon MGM)

• RaMell Ross — “Nickel Boys” (Amazon MGM/Orion)

• Marielle Heller — “Nightbitch” (Searchlight Pictures)

• Robert Eggers — “Nosferatu” (Focus Features)

• Paul Schrader — “Oh, Canada” (Kino Lorber)

• Rungano Nyoni — “On Becoming a Guinea Fowl” (A24)

• Justin Kurzel — “The Order” (Vertical Entertainment)

• Nora Fingscheidt — “The Outrun” (Sony Pictures Classics)

• Pablo Sorrentino — “Parthenope” (A24)

• Malcolm Washington — “The Piano Lesson” (Netflix)

• Morgan Neville — “Piece by Piece” (Focus Features)

• Luca Guadagnino — “Queer” (A24)

• Jesse Eisenberg — “A Real Pain” (Searchlight Pictures)

• David Mackenzie — “Relay” (No U.S. Distribution) **

• Uberto Pasolini — “The Return” (No U.S. Distribution) **

• Sydney Freeland — “Rez Ball” (Netflix)

• Pedro Almodóvar — “The Room Next Door” (Sony Pictures Classics)

• Guy Maddine, Evan Johnson and Galen Johnson — “Rumours” (Bleecker Street)

• Nathan Zellner and David Zellner — “Sasquatch Sunset” (Bleecker Street)

• Mohammad Rasoulof — “The Seed of the Sacred Fig” (Neon)

• Tim Fehlbaum — “September 5” (Paramount Pictures)

• John Ridley — “Shirley” (Netflix)

• Greg Kwedar — “Sing Sing” (A24)

• Tyler Perry — “The Six Triple Eight” (Netflix)

• Tim Mielants — “Small Things Like These” (Lionsgate)

• Jason Reitman — “Saturday Night” (Sony Pictures)

• Jeff Fowler — “Sonic the Hedgehog 3” (Paramount Pictures)

• Vicky Jenson — “Spellbound” (Netflix)

• Robert Morgan — “Stopmotion” (IFC/Shudder)

• Coralie Fargeat — “The Substance” (Mubi)

• Ian Bonhôte and Peter Ettedgui — “Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story” (Warner Bros.)

• Simon Otto — “That Christmas” (Netflix)

• Josh Margolin — “Thelma” (Magnolia Pictures)

• Josh Cooley — “Transformers One” (Paramount Pictures)

• Daina O. Pusić — “Tuesday” (A24)

• Lee Isaac Chung — “Twisters” (Universal Pictures)

• Shannon Tindle — “Ultraman: Rising” (Netflix)

• William Goldenberg — “Unstoppable” (Amazon MGM)

• Kelly Marcel — “Venom: The Last Dance” (Sony Pictures)

• Nick Park and Merlin Crossingham — “Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl” (Netflix)

• Minhal Baig — “We Grown Now” (Sony Pictures Classics)

• John Crowley — “We Live in Time” (A24)

• Jon M. Chu — “Wicked” (Universal Pictures)

• Chris Sanders — “The Wild Robot” (DreamWorks Animation)

• Ethan Hawke — “Wildcat” (Oscilloscope Laboratories)

• Anna Kendrick — “Woman of the Hour” (Netflix)

• Joachim Rønning — “Young Woman and the Sea” (Walt Disney Pictures)

More Information (Oscars: Best Director)

2024 category winner: Christopher Nolan — “Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)

2024-2025 Oscars Calendar and Timeline – Full awards season calendar here

• Eligibility period: Jan. 1, 2024 – Dec. 31, 2024

• General entry, best picture, RAISE submission deadline: Thursday, Nov. 14, 2024

• Governors Awards: Sunday, Nov. 17, 2024

• Preliminary voting begins Monday, Dec. 9, 2024, at 9 a.m. PT.

• Preliminary voting ends Friday, Dec. 13, 2024, at 5 p.m. PT.

• Oscar Shortlists Announcement: Tuesday, Dec. 17, 2024

• Eligibility period ends: Tuesday, Dec. 31, 2024

• Nominations voting begins Wednesday, Jan. 8, 2025, at 9 a.m. PT.

• Nominations voting ends Sunday, Jan. 12, 2025, at 5 p.m. PT.

• Oscar Nominations Announcement: Friday, Jan. 17, 2025

• Oscar Nominees Luncheon: Monday, Feb. 10, 2025

• Final voting begins Tuesday, Feb. 11, 2025, at 9 a.m. PT

• Final voting ends: Tuesday, Feb. 18, 2025, at 5 p.m. PT

• Scientific and Technical Awards: Tuesday, Feb. 18, 2025

• 97th Oscars: Sunday, March 2, 2025

Oscars Prediction Categories

About the Academy Awards

The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Nineteen branches are represented within the nearly 11,000-person membership. The branches are actors, animators, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films, sound, visual effects and writers.

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