2025 Oscars Best Picture Predictions

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

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Best Picture commentary (Updated Feb. 11, 2025): Sean Baker’s $6 million Palme d’Or winner, “Anora,” just had a game-changing weekend in the awards race, taking home top honors at the Critics Choice, Directors Guild of America, and Producers Guild of America Awards. Baker is only the second director of a Palme d’Or-winning movie to win DGA after Derbert Mann for 1955’s “Marty.”

The one-two punch of a DGA and PGA win has historically been a strong indicator of Oscar success. Since the co-existence of both guilds in 1994, only six films have lost best picture at the Oscars after securing both prizes. Of those, only one — 1998’s “Saving Private Ryan” — was “perfect” in their guild and Oscar showings pre-ceremony. The others — “Apollo 13” (1995, missed director), “Brokeback Mountain” (2005, missed editing), “Gravity” (2013, missed screenplay and SAG Ensemble), “La La Land” (2016, missed SAG Ensemble), and “1917” (2019, missed editing and SAG ensemble) — all had notable gaps in their awards-season trajectory.

Only two films have received nominations from all five major industry groups — the PGA, DGA, SAG, WGA and BAFTA: “Anora” and “A Complete Unknown.”

Since July, six different films have occupied the No. 1 spot on Variety’s best picture charts, “Anora” among them. The rest were all considered part of the “Big Six,” that many felt were seen as a possible winner.

The only scenario that could lead to a true “flip-a-coin” best picture showdown would be if the same film wins at both of the upcoming BAFTA and SAG ceremonies. The latter happens after final voting closes. But which film could pull that off?

With its strong international voting bloc, BAFTA could gravitate toward German auteur Edward Berger’s “Conclave” Berger’s previous film, “All Quiet on the Western Front,” dominated BAFTA with seven wins — the most ever for a non-English-language film. However, “Anora” has also resonated internationally, as evidenced by its Cannes reception and identical nominations at BAFTA and the Oscars.

“Conclave” has swept the majority of ensemble prizes throughout the season, including the Critics Choice Awards. But here’s the caveat: since the Academy expanded best picture nominations in 2009, CCA and SAG winners have only matched seven times.

Berger’s omission from the director Oscar lineup is a critical miss. However, that didn’t stop Ben Affleck’s “Argo” (2013), Peter Farrelly’s “Green Book” (2018), or Sian Heder’s “CODA” (2021) — but each of those films won at least one of the PGA or SAG Awards.

Other SAG ensemble possibilities are the starry cast of “A Complete Unknown” and “Wicked,” both of which are among the most nominated of the films in contention with the guild. However, “A Complete Unknown” doesn’t have a directing nod at BAFTA, and “Wicked” isn’t among the five Best Film nominees.

The last time a film won best picture with only SAG and BAFTA? That would be 1998’s “Shakespeare in Love,” which followed “The Full Monty” (1997), a BAFTA and SAG winner that ultimately lost to juggernaut “Titanic.”

A SAG-only win? That’s the “Parasite” (2019) path — the first and only non-English-language winner.

A BAFTA-only win? That’s never happened.

Does that make “Anora” unstoppable? Funny enough, “Braveheart” (1995) and “Moonlight” (2016) won with a single WGA prize during their respective seasons. So perhaps that can be a saving grace for “A Complete Unknown” due to all the ineligibilities.

Voting is underway until Feb. 18.

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Variety Awards Circuit: Oscars

The 97th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 2. All movie listings, titles, distributors, and credited artisans are not final and are subject to change.

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Eligible Titles (Best Picture)

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More Information (Oscars: Best Picture)

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About the Academy Awards

The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Nineteen branches are represented within the nearly 11,000-person membership. The branches are actors, animators, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films, sound, visual effects and writers.

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