In most fantasy baseball articles, so much time is spent discussing which players to draft that few people are warned off the players you need to avoid.
Navigating the outfield landscape, for example, requires a disciplined eye for distinguishing between a true late-career renaissance and a statistical fluke fueled by unsustainable luck.
Though the allure of “name brand” stars often provides a sense of security during the early rounds of a draft, several veteran outfielders currently are being drafted at a premium based on 2025 totals that they are fundamentally ill-equipped to repeat.
Chasing last year’s production is the quickest way to sink a roster, especially when the underlying metrics suggest a steep “age cliff” or a reliance on health outcomes that have historically been outliers.
George Springer stands as perhaps the most glaring example of someone to avoid at his current ADP.
Coming off an age-35 season when he posted a surprising 161 OPS+ and .309 batting average, Springer finished as a top-10 outfielder.
Nevertheless, a closer look at his peripheral data reveals a player surviving on elite bat-to-ball skills while his physical tools diminish.
It seems highly improbable that his batting average remains 30 points above his career norm as his bat speed naturally slows.
Drafting a player at this age coming off career-highs is a bet that rarely pays off in professional baseball.
Similarly, Byron Buxton remains the ultimate “fool’s gold” in fantasy circles.
His 2025 campaign was a statistical dream, as he managed to stay on the active roster for 126 games while clubbing 35 home runs and finishing a perfect 24-for-24 in stolen base attempts. However, expecting a repeat of this health profile is statistically reckless.
Buxton’s aggressive playing style and history of soft-tissue injuries mean that every game played is a borrowed minute. Furthermore, his 100 percent success rate on the basepaths is a massive outlier that screams for negative regression.
With an ADP that has skyrocketed into the top 40, you are essentially paying for a ceiling that requires a perfect bill of health, something Buxton has achieved just twice in a decade-long career.
You also have Christian Yelich as a prime candidate for a statistical correction this season. Though the fact he played 150 games in 2025 is encouraging, his underlying contact quality told a different story.
Yelich saw a concerning spike in his strikeout rate, climbing back toward 25 percent, while his hard-hit rate and average exit velocity both dipped to their lowest levels since his pre-MVP days in Miami.
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He has become increasingly reliant on a high BABIP and a ground-ball-heavy approach that finds holes rather than clearing fences.
As defenders adjust and his foot speed inevitably declines, those singles will turn into outs, and the power won’t be there to compensate.
When you draft an outfielder in the early rounds, you need a high floor. With Springer, Buxton and Yelich, the floor is becoming increasingly shaky as their profiles shift from elite run-producers to volume-dependent veterans.
Avoiding these three names at their current elevated costs will allow you to pivot toward younger, high-upside talents whose best years are still in front of them.
Howard Bender is the head of content at FantasyAlarm.com. Follow him on X @rotobuzzguy, catch him on the award-winning “Fantasy Alarm Radio Show” on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Ch. 87) weekdays from 6-8 p.m. and domin ate your drafts with the Fantasy Alarm Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide.
