We are just over a month away from the start of the Men’s Ice Hockey Tournament at the 2026 Winter Olympics in Milan. Team USA unveiled its roster on Friday, and there was little controversy surrounding the selections.
There was some hurrumphing about Adam Fox, Jason Robertson, and Cole Caufield being left at home in favor of Seth Jones, Vincent Trocheck, and JT Miller. Still, the American brass clearly wanted to bring a handful of sound, two-way players instead of just loading up on scoring power.
And the fact that there are so many quality players missing out tells you that the state of USA Hockey is as strong as it’s ever been. The betting market clearly believes that. The Americans (+190) are right on the heels of Team Canada (+135) to win the Gold Medal at FanDuel Sportsbook.
There is no arguing that the Canadians and Team USA are the clear frontrunners to win gold on paper, but I would suggest that the gap between the two neighbors should be a lot wider than it is right now.
There are a couple of reasons why the Americans are being offered at such a short price, and the first has nothing to do with talent or depth, but with market patterns. Bookmakers on this side of the border know that money will pour in on the Stars and Stripes regardless of price, so they can charge a patriotic premium.
The other reason why the price is so tight between the Americans and Canadians is because of what we saw in the 4 Nations Faceoff. Canada eventually won the tournament, but the Yanks took them to overtime in the championship and defeated them in the round robin.
The only problem with that logic is that things have trended in the wrong direction for Team USA since that tournament.
The country’s best player and captain, Auston Matthews, has been in and out of the lineup for the Toronto Maple Leafs all season, and he’s not been the same player over the past season and a half.
Team USA’s emotional leaders, Matthew and Brady Tkachuk, have also dealt with long-term injuries this season, with the former yet to set foot on the ice for the Panthers this season.
It doesn’t stop there. Jack Hughes, the team’s best playmaker, just returned from a lengthy absence and hasn’t looked like the same player since injuring his hand in a freak accident at a restaurant.
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Starting goaltender Connor Hellebuyck, the two-time reigning Vezina Trophy winner, has also spent a lot of time on the sidelines this season and has looked a step behind his usual form in 2025-26.
Even when fully fit and firing, Team USA’s core lagged behind Canada’s. There’s just no competing with a 1-2-3-4 punch of Connor McDavid, Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar, and Sidney Crosby. But all four of those stars – plus the emerging powerhouse that is Macklin Celebrini – are all in the midst of stupendous seasons. The same cannot be said for the best Americans.
Betting discussions involve nuance and context. You’re judging everything against price. In this case, the argument isn’t that the Americans don’t have a chance to win the Gold Medal. Nor is it to say that they have no shot of beating Canada in an elimination game.
What I’m arguing is that Canada belongs in a class of its own in this field, and that bookmakers placing Team USA this close behind is driven by sentiment and market bias, not fact.
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
