Over half a billion dollars in oil bets were placed just 15 minutes before President Trump announced Monday he was pausing plans to attack Iranian infrastructure, sending prices plunging.
In a narrow window between 6:49 a.m. and 6:50 a.m. Eastern Time, about 6,200 Brent and West Texas Intermediate crude futures trades were placed — a burst of activity valued at about $580 million, according to the Financial Times.
Around the same time, volumes in S&P 500 futures also spiked, with equity markets beginning to move higher just moments later.
Then at 7:04 a.m., Trump posted on Truth Social that the US had engaged in “productive conversations” with Iran and signaled a pause in planned strikes — a message that caught markets off guard.
Oil prices quickly plunged, with crude falling more than 10% on the day, while stock futures surged as investors dialed back expectations of a prolonged conflict.
It was not known exactly how the trades were positioned, though the flurry of activity suggests the bets were on falling oil prices.
In that case, whoever placed the wagers would have been poised to reap a handsome profit.
Later Monday, Iran’s parliamentary speaker pushed back, denying that any negotiations had taken place — triggering another bout of volatility across global markets.
It remains unclear whether the trades were placed by a single entity or multiple players.
A White House spokesperson told the FT that any suggestion that officials profited from insider knowledge was “baseless and irresponsible.” The Post has sought comment from the White House.
There is no evidence that the trades involved insider information.
Still, the timing of the trades — just minutes before a market-moving announcement — has raised eyebrows on Wall Street.
Retail traders have piled into oil bets in recent weeks, pouring record sums into funds tied to crude prices as volatility surged, the FT reported earlier this month.
Flows into the United States Oil Fund, which tracks US oil futures under the ticker USO, hit a record $115 million over a five-day stretch, while options activity tied to the fund climbed to its highest level on record.
The rush has drawn comparisons to so-called “meme” stock frenzies, with small investors chasing sharp swings in oil markets.
Activity also jumped in leveraged oil products such as ProShares’ UCO fund, underscoring a growing appetite among retail traders to wager on violent moves in crude.
