Crypto traders on Polymarket never shy away from betting on political events. In fact, it was their correct prediction of Donald Trump winning the 2024 U.S. presidential election that made the crypto-based prediction market extremely popular.
Now that the fear of a government shutdown in the U.S. is looming, Polymarket traders think there is an 85% chance of it happening by Oct. 1.
So far, crypto traders on Polymarket have placed more than $5 million on this market.
Even Trump admitted that the government will “probably” shut down while addressing reporters in the Oval Office today.
What it means is that when the lawmakers fail to enact the legislation to finance the federal government for the next fiscal year, the government is forced to shut down. In such a scenario, non-essential federal agencies stop operating because the lawmakers haven’t approved their budget.
Analysts at Bitfinex warned that if the government indeed shuts down, the disruption could delay key inflation reports like CPI. This, in turn, will complicate the Federal Reserve’s policy decisions.
As far as Bitcoin is concerned, the asset’s post-FOMC rally has given way to a cooling phase, the analysts added. In fact, Bitcoin’s price action is demonstrating classic “buy the rumor, sell the news” dynamics, they added.
A looming government shutdown underscores deep political polarization in the U.S., Bitfinex analysts underscored. In such a scenario, crypto may draw renewed attention as investors question Washington’s stability, they added.
Chris Kline, COO and co-founder at BitcoinIRA, the crypto-focused retirement platform, told TheStreet Roundtable in an email that American people are getting fatigued from government inconsistencies at this point.
“We’ve faced numerous looming ‘shutdowns’ over the last decade. I expect to see alternative assets like gold, silver, and bitcoin thrive in this contentious environment, especially against the USD run by a government that continues to shut down over budget disagreements.”
As per Kraken’s price feed, Bitcoin was exchanging hands at $113,341.29 at press time. The total crypto market cap stood at $3.87 trillion at the time of writing.
Related: What is Crypto? Cryptocurrency explained
This story was originally reported by TheStreet on Sep 30, 2025, where it first appeared in the MARKETS section. Add TheStreet as a Preferred Source by clicking here.
