First, a reminder: the Emmys 2024 haven’t actually happened yet. The Emmy Awards held this past January were in fact honoring TV shows released between June 2022 and May 2023; they were handed out in 2024 only because the 2023 WGA and SAG-AFTRA strikes pushed the ceremony out of its usual September perch. So: Now that that’s out of the way, which TV series should we expect to walk away with nominations for the actual Emmys 2024? VF’s experts have educated guesses for every major category.
COMEDY SERIES
Abbott Elementary
The Bear
Curb Your Enthusiasm
The Gentlemen
Hacks
Only Murders in the Building
Reservation Dogs
What We Do in the Shadows
Five returning nominees here feel fairly locked in. We’ll start with reigning champ The Bear, which—while a bit more dramatic than your average comedy-series contender—has swept races not just at the Emmys, but at the Golden Globes, Critics Choice Awards, and various industry guilds. It’s the front-runner. After a two-year hiatus, Max’s Hacks returned triumphant and has emerged as the primary challenger with its series-best season three. Abbott Elementary and Only Murders in the Building have been Emmy mainstays for their first seasons too, and will comfortably return to the fold for their own strong third seasons. Curb Your Enthusiasm meanwhile is up for its final season more than 20 years after its first nod in this category.
After that, things get tricky. The big remaining streamers each have one newbie they’d love to sneak in, with each carrying obvious advantages and disadvantages. Apple TV+ has Palm Royale, the starriest and most heavily marketed of the bunch. But it’s designated “rotten” on Rotten Tomatoes and faded in visibility over the spring. Prime Video’s I’m a Virgo was severely underseen—and aired a full year ago—but ranked among the best-reviewed shows in 2023. The best-positioned may be Netflix’s The Gentlemen, which, while not an obvious awards play on its face—Guy Ritchie hasn’t exactly been in the Academy’s conversation ever—was a success for the streamer that critics also embraced.
Can all three freshmen get in? Those first two face especially tough hurdles, especially when past nominee What We Do in the Shadows is a proven hit with the TV Academy, and another acclaimed FX half-hour, Reservation Dogs, is on its last chance for its final season—after being completely snubbed above the line until now, no less. Maybe, given the scattered nature of the field, enough voters have come around for Reservation Dogs to sneak in. —David Canfield
ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES
Larry David, Curb Your Enthusiasm
Theo James, The Gentlemen
Steve Martin, Only Murders in the Building
Martin Short, Only Murders in the Building
Jeremy Allen White, The Bear
This category is straightforward. Jeremy Allen White will be back for The Bear’s second season, primed to win once again. The only other 2023 nominee on the ballot is Only Murders in the Building’s Martin Short, so expect him to return as well. His costar, Steve Martin, fell off after being nominated for season one, but I’d bet on him finding his way back as a nominee—along with Curb’s Larry David, also snubbed for his most recent season—given the lack of alternatives. The most viable of them is The Gentlemen’s Theo James, seeing as he’s fresh off his first Emmy nod for The White Lotus and The Gentlemen found a significant audience. You could argue past Emmy winner Jharrel Jerome stands a shot for his terrific work in I’m a Virgo, or that Kelsey Grammer could get checked off for the Frasier revival, but I’m not convinced either series is on the TV Academy’s radar enough to put their leads ahead of a rather obvious five. —DC
ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES
Quinta Brunson, Abbott Elementary
Ayo Edebiri, The Bear
Maya Rudolph, Loot
Jean Smart, Hacks
Kristen Wiig, Palm Royale
We’ve got a race here, as three of the presumed nominees are coming off wins for their respective roles. Jean Smart won for Hacks two years ago, before taking off the last cycle. In her place, Quinta Brunson took home the gold for Abbott Elementary. Ayo Edebiri won the supporting-actress prize for The Bear’s first season, but this time around is bumping up to lead. All three are certain at least to make it to nominations. Beyond them? Even when Only Murders was at its hottest, voters snubbed Selena Gomez, so although this is her best chance, it remains a climb. It’s unclear just how many Academy members watched—and for that matter, liked—Apple’s relevant contenders, Palm Royale and Loot, but both Kristen Wiig and Maya Rudolph are Academy favorites. Their charming, consistent runs on the campaign trail these last few months may just be enough to get them into the race. For those looking outside the box, I’d hope Netflix’s push for Girls5Eva nets Renee Elise Goldsberry the nod she’s been unfairly denied thus far. It’s one of the best comic performances on TV. —DC
SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES
Lionel Boyce, The Bear
Paul W. Downs, Hacks
Matty Matheson, The Bear
Ebon Moss-Bachrach, The Bear
Oliver Platt, The Bear
Tyler James Williams, Abbott Elementary
