This year’s presidential election is shaping up to be one of the most polarizing in American history, and many are wondering which candidate will become the next president.
Election predictions are difficult in battleground states like Arizona. But Allan Lichtman, a historian who has correctly predicted the outcome of nine out of the past 10 presidential elections, has confirmed his prediction on which candidate will reclaim the White House.
This year, he predicts Vice President Kamala Harris will win.
But purple states like Arizona, which has 11 votes in the electoral college, will be a critical state in ensuring either candidate’s victory. And Arizona could be a state that spoils Lichtman’s prediction.
Who is Allan Lichtman and how does he create his prediction work?
Allan Lichtman is a distinguished professor of history at the American University in Washington, D.C. He earned a doctorate from Harvard specializing in modern American history and quantitative methods.
Since 1984, Lichtman has published his “Keys to the White House” manuscript, in which he predicts which candidate will claim the presidency.
He’s made the correct prediction in 10 recent presidential elections, except for the razor-thin George W. Bush victory in the 2000 election over Al Gore, who Lichtman predicted would be the winner.
He bases his prediction on thirteen keys, or “big picture true-false questions that tap into the strength and performance of the White House Party.”
The keys include whether:
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The White House party gained House seats during the midterm elections.
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The sitting president is running for reelection.
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The White House party is avoiding a primary contest.
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There is a third-party challenger.
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The short-term economy is strong.
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The long-term economic growth has been as good as the last two terms.
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The White House party has made major changes to national policy.
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There is sustained social unrest during the term.
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The White House is untainted by scandal, the incumbent party is charismatic.
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The challenger is uncharismatic.
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The incumbent is charismatic.
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The White House party has a major failure in foreign policy.
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The White House party has foreign policy success.
Eight of the keys are in favor of Harris, while three are in favor of Trump. The final two foreign policy keys, according to Lichtman, are a toss-up.
But will these 13 keys apply to how Arizona votes?
Will Kamala Harris or Donald Trump win in Arizona?
Lichtman’s predictions have held true at the national level for nine out of the last 10 elections.
But even if Lichtman is correct in predicting Kamala Harris will win the presidency, it doesn’t mean she’ll win Arizona’s 11 electoral votes.
Arizona has become one of the country’s notorious battleground states ever since President Joe Biden and the Democratic Party won Arizona’s electoral votes in 2020.
Before that, the Republican presidential nominees won Arizona in five consecutive election cycles.
Just like 2020, Arizona is a toss-up in 2024. Recently, both Harris and Trump have made campaign stops in Arizona to swoon voters.
One of the keys that was in favor of Harris in Lichtman’s prediction was the strength of the short-term economy. According to Lichtman, a strong short-term economy would make Harris look favorable in the eyes of voters. Lichtman does not believe the economy is in a recession, despite economic instability being one of the issues Trump has used to attack Harris’ campaign.
According to economists who spoke at the Greater Phoenix Chamber’s Economic Outlook last week, Arizona is actually faring well with job creation and addressing its housing crisis.
In fact, Phoenix outpaced the nation both in wage growth and employment growth last year. The Chamber expects cooling inflation and a more balanced job market to carry into next year.
The national short-term economy is strong, according to Lichtman. At the state level, it’s stronger than Arizona residents may expect. This key works in Harris’ favor, as Lichtman predicted.
Another key in Harris’ favor is the key that asks if longterm economic growth during the current presidential term has been significant. If economic growth has been constant under the president, according to Lichtman, it means that president’s party looks more favorable than the other party.
During Biden’s term, Arizona has seen significant economy growth.
In 2021, the state’s real gross domestic product, a measure of the value of a state’s goods and services, increased a whopping 7.8% in 2021, according to the data and intelligence platform Statista. The 7.8% increase was nearly double the GDP growth seen in any of the four years during Trump’s presidency.
With the economy being a major focal point in this year’s election, the GDP growth seen during Biden’s term could be a sign of even more growth in the future, were the democrat Harris to win the election.
Economic growth is a key that works in Harris’ favor at the national level, according to Lichtman. It also works in her favor at the Arizona level.
As for the key that asks who is the more charismatic candidate, Lichtman said there are people who see both Harris and Trump as charismatic. The difference in Arizona, therefore, could come down to the vice president nominees and their charisma.
Tim Walz is likely viewed as a more charismatic candidate than JD Vance, especially among college students, whom Walz made a point to visit during his campaign stop last week. Meanwhile Vance, during a campaign stop in Arizona, found himself in hot water after refusing to distance himself from alleged Hitler apologist Tucker Carlson.
If Arizona voters see Walz as a more charismatic candidate than Vance, the state could very well vote blue again.
Lichtman’s key about social unrest could work in favor of either Trump or Harris in Arizona. There have been plenty of protests around abortion, gun rights and Palestine over the course of the last four years, and voters can likely see that both Trump and Harris have been figureheads of issues that are protested in Arizona.
Lichtman thinks Harris has the advantage when it comes to social unrest, but that may not hold true in Arizona.
When it comes down to it, Lichtman said he thinks Harris is going to be the next president of the United States —whether or not Arizona votes for her will be left to the polls.
Lichtman emphasized that no matter who people are rooting for, they should make a point to vote in this year’s election.
USA TODAY reporters Sudiksha Kochi and Rachel Barber contributed to this article.
This article originally appeared on Arizona Republic: Historian has correctly guessed 9 of past 10 elections. Who will win?
