Allan Lichtman, historian renowned for accurately predicting 9 out of the 10 most recent presidential elections, has shared his prediction for this year’s White House race. Who does Lichtman say will win?
He forecasts that Vice President Kamala Harris will be the winner. In a video first reported by The New York Times, Lichtman explained that his prediction is based on a set of thirteen “keys” or true-false questions assessing the strength and performance of the incumbent party in the White House.
Who is Allan Lichtman?
Before being named “Distinguished Professor” at American University in Washington, D.C., Lichtman earned a Ph.D. in modern American history and quantitative methods from Harvard. He has lectured globally, authored 13 books and hundreds of academic articles, and served as an expert witness in civil and voting rights cases. Lichtman is widely recognized for his political commentary and election forecasting.
What are the 13 keys to a successful election campaign?
The keys include questions such as:
-
Did the White House party gain House seats during the midterm elections?
-
Is the sitting president running for reelection?
-
Is the White House party avoiding a primary contest?
-
Is there a third-party challenger?
-
Is the short-term economy strong?
-
Has long-term economic growth been as good as in the previous two terms?
-
Has the White House party made major changes to national policy?
-
Is there sustained social unrest during the term?
-
Is the White House untainted by scandal, and is the incumbent party charismatic?
-
Is the challenger uncharismatic?
-
Is the incumbent charismatic?
-
Has the White House party experienced a major failure in foreign policy?
-
Has the White House party achieved foreign policy success?
Why did Allan Lichtman pick Harris?
According to Lichtman, eight of the keys favor Harris, while three favor Trump. Lichtman notes that “foreign policy is tricky, and these keys could flip.” He added, “The Biden administration is deeply invested in the war in Gaza, which is a humanitarian disaster with no end in sight. But even if both foreign policy keys flipped false, there would still be only five negative keys, which would not be enough for Donald Trump to regain the White House.” As a result, Lichtman predicts Harris will win.
Presidential debate schedule: Will Kamala Harris and Donald Trump debate again?
Harris’ team has agreed to a second debate before the November election, but the details are still uncertain. According to a statement from the Harris-Walz campaign, “The debate about debates is over. Donald Trump’s campaign accepted our proposal for three debates – two presidential and one vice presidential.” Trump last week posted that there will not be another debate against Harris. In his Truth Social post, Trump wrote, “Kamala should focus on what she should have done during the last almost four year period. There will be no third debate!”
When is the vice presidential debate between JD Vance and Tim Walz?
The vice presidential debate will take place Tuesday, Oct. 1, with GOP nominee JD Vance and Democratic nominee Tim Walz, and will be hosted by CBS News.
When is Election Day 2024?
Election Day is Tuesday, Nov. 5. Polling sites in New York will be open from 6 a.m. to 9 p.m.
When is the deadline to register to vote in New York?
The deadline for the general election is Saturday, Oct. 26. All applications – including in-person applications – must be received by this date.
Is there early voting in New York?
Yes, early voting for the general election begins Saturday, Oct. 26 and runs through Sunday, Nov. 3. Contact your county’s Board of Elections for voting locations.
How to register to vote in New York
There are multiple ways to register to vote in New York:
Where else can I register to vote in New York?
In addition to your county’s Department of Motor Vehicles, you can also register to vote in person at the following New York State agency offices:
-
Alcoholism and Substance Abuse Services
-
City Universities of New York (CUNY)
-
Commission for the Blind and Visually Impaired
-
Department of Health – WIC Program
-
Department of Labor
-
Department of Social Services
-
Department of State
-
Division of Veterans’ Services
-
Military Recruiting Offices
-
Office for the Aging
-
Office of Mental Health
-
Office For People With Developmental Disabilities
-
State Universities of New York (SUNY)
-
Adult Career and Continuing Education Services-Vocational Rehabilitation (ACCES-VR)
-
Workers’ Compensation Board
Who can register to vote in New York?
To qualify for voter registration in New York, you must:
-
be a United States citizen
-
be 18 years old
-
be a resident of the state, county and city/town/village for at least 30 days before the election
-
not be in prison for a felony conviction
-
not be adjudged mentally incompetent by a court
-
not claim the right to vote elsewhere
Check your voter registration status
View your voter registration status online using the state’s registration record.
This article originally appeared on Rockland/Westchester Journal News: Allan Lichtman predicts who will win 2024 election: Harris or Trump?
