The WNBA playoff picture is set with the New York Liberty clinching home-court advantage as the top seed and the Minnesota Lynx in the No. 2 slot.
The playoffs begin Sunday and all eyes will be on rookie Caitlin Clark, who guided Indiana to its first postseason appearance in the last eight years.
The Fever enter as the No. 6 seed.
But with the regular season dust settled, it’s tough to make a case for any team outside the top four seeds to win the championship, especially when you consider that only once since 2016 — when the W went to an eight-team field — has a seed higher than No. 2 won it all (No. 6 Chicago Sky in 2021).
However, there is one whose odds are completely mispriced, given how well it’s played against the leading contenders.
WNBA championship odds
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| New York Liberty | +130 |
| Las Vegas Aces | +250 |
| Minnesota Lynx | +350 |
| Connecticut Sun | +750 |
| Indiana Fever | 20/1 |
| Seattle Storm | 30/1 |
| Phoenix Mercury | 125/1 |
| Atlanta Dream | 250/1 |
MVP race leaves Lynx overlooked
Minnesota’s Napheesa Collier (20.3 points, 9.8 rebounds) would likely be the runaway MVP winner if the Aces’ A’ja Wilson didn’t have arguably the greatest individual season in WNBA history.
In addition to becoming the first player to score 1,000 points in a season, Wilson also set the league record for rebounds in a season, passing Sky rookie Angel Reese, who established the mark three weeks earlier before suffering a season-ending injury.
Las Vegas got off to a sluggish 6-6 start, even as Wilson filled the stats sheet nightly.
And while the Aces would go on to win 12 of their next 18 games, something still wasn’t quite right with the team.
In 2023, the Aces posted an absurd +15.3 Net Rating during the regular season on their way to a second straight title.
They led the league with a 97.7 Defensive Rating, yet this season, the top four defensive teams have ratings ranging from 94.5 to 96.2. Las Vegas ranks fifth in that category, 3.5 points behind Seattle.
Recently, the Aces have gone back to their defensive roots.
Over their last eight games, they’ve held opponents under 80 points while posting the best defensive rating (93.4) during that span.
Nonetheless, while the Aces are the two-time defending champions, they shouldn’t have the second-shortest championship odds at +250 (ESPN Bet) behind the Liberty (+130).
Schedule sets up a deep run for Minnesota
As the second seed, the Lynx will avoid facing arguably the two best teams, the Liberty and Aces, until the WNBA Finals.
New York, as the top seed, is on a collision course to potentially face Las Vegas in the second round.
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Minnesota has a combined 6-2 record against New York and Las Vegas that includes a 94-89 Commissioner’s Cup victory in front of a pro-Liberty crowd at UBS Arena.
Current odds give the Liberty a 43.5% implied probability of winning the title, with the Aces at 28.6% Minnesota’s odds of +350 suggest it has a 22.2% implied probability.
I would generally prefer these odds at +380, but +350 or better is still worthy of consideration in this market.
Recommendation: Lynx to win WNBA championship (+350, ESPN Bet)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Michael Arinze handicaps most major sports for the New York Post. He’s cashed two 15-leg teasers in his betting career as well as a 12-leg parlay that included eight Little League World Series games. More recently, he accurately picked finalists in the 2024 European Championships and Copa America.
