Even before Jordan Love went down with an MCL injury in Week 1, the Green Bay Packers made a trade before the season opener, acquiring Malik Willis from Tennessee to be the team’s backup quarterback.
At the time, some questioned why Green Bay would give up a draft pick — even a seventh-rounder — for a quarterback who had flopped in his first two NFL seasons. But after going 2-0 as Love’s stand-in, Willis could end up saving Green Bay’s season of high expectations.
Think the Dolphins or Chargers could use him right now? Or the Titans?
In this week’s NFL futures column, I’m focused on the Packers and Love, who is on course to return Sunday to face the first-place Vikings at Lambeau Field.
But before we get there, here’s a look at my growing NFL futures portfolio from the first three weeks:
2024 NFL futures betting
Week 4 best bet: Packers to win NFC North (+340, DraftKings)
The NFC North might be the best division in the NFL this season, with the Vikings a surprise 3-0 and the Lions and Packers both at 2-1.
Minnesota is coming off impressive home wins over Super Bowl contenders San Francisco and Houston, but this week, the Vikings travel to Green Bay for their first real road test of the season.
The Packers were panicked after a Week 1 loss to the Eagles, during which Love suffered his MCL injury.
However, the quarterback pushed hard to play last week and looks to be a full go for this pivotal divisional matchup Sunday.
It’s important to remember just how dominant Love was to finish last season. So dominant, he came into this season tied for the fifth-shortest odds (14/1) to win NFL MVP.
From Week 11 to Week 18 last year, Love had 23 passing touchdowns to just three interceptions. Over that span, he led all qualified quarterbacks in PFF’s passing grades and ranked second in EPA+CPOE composite.
Coach Matt LaFleur discovered how to make the youngest offense in the league tick, and Love set the league ablaze.
Green Bay hired defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley in the offseason to fix a unit that struggled last year, and early returns are promising. The Packers had eight sacks in Sunday’s win over the Titans, and Hafley’s aggressive scheme has been a godsend for a fanbase that suffered through the three-year malaise of Joe Brady’s defense.
The Vikings have been impressive to start the year, but are we ready to crown Sam Darnold after three games? Minnesota is the only team in the NFL that hasn’t trailed for a single snap this season. What happens when the pressure is on for Darnold and the game script isn’t in his favor?
The Lions, meanwhile, had a brutal game of injuries on Sunday. Edge Marcus Davenport is out for the season, and linebacker Derrick Barnes joins Alex Anzalone on the injury report.
Center Frank Ragnow — one of the lynchpins of the offense — suffered a partially torn pec, while tight end Sam LaPorta, defensive tackle Alim McNeill and safety Brian Branch are all injured.
Detroit has a harsh stretch of upcoming games, including a test against a fast-rising Seahawks team before road matchups against the Cowboys, Vikings, Packers and Texans.
The Packers get four of their next six games at home, and their two road games are against a banged-up Rams team and the 0-3 Jaguars. Starting this week, they have a significant opportunity to gain ground in a competitive division.
Week 4 NFL futures best bet
I like the Packers to beat Minnesota on Sunday (they’re favored by 2.5 points), and if you agree with me, it might be wise to grab their divisional odds at +340 odds on DraftKings.
FTN Fantasy has the Packers at 27.3% to win the division, which would be closer to odds of around +265. If they pull off the win this week, those odds will shorten even more.
Betting on the NFL?
I also sprinkled some money on Love to win the MVP at 75-1 on DraftKings. The two missed games will hurt his resume, but nobody has made a strong claim for the award this season outside of maybe Josh Allen, the current favorite (+200, BetMGM) after his four-touchdown performance Monday night.
If Love returns to his form from last year, nobody will remember those two missed games at the end of the season.
Best bets: Packers to win NFC North (+340, DraftKings); Jordan Love to win MVP (75/1, DraftKings)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Jacob Wayne handicaps college football and the NFL for the New York Post. He’s up 84.5 units across the two sports with a 6.27% ROI.
