Hispanic Americans have long been a bedrock of support for the Democratic Party. There are signs that’s changing — and it could decide the election this November.
Democrats have won the Hispanic vote in every presidential election since 1972. With the exception of 2004, Democratic nominees since 1992 had always beaten their Republican counterpart by at least 35 points with Hispanic voters.
That began to change, surprisingly to some, during the Trump administration.
Hispanics are largely working-class, and by 2020 they had begun to warm up to Donald Trump and his party.
Joe Biden won Hispanics by only 23 points, 60 to 37, data from the Democratic firm Catalist show. That was enough to shift Florida from a swing state to one that leaned Republican and boosted Trump in both Nevada and Arizona.
Republicans held these gains despite the poor national environment in the 2022 midterms. The Democratic-leaning firm Equis Research estimates Democrats won about the same share of the Hispanic vote in House races and key Senate and gubernatorial races as Biden did in 2020.
The GOP was disappointed it didn’t do any better despite significant outreach to the Hispanic community. But simply keeping the gains was telling.
Polls show Trump is doing better with Hispanics today than he was in 2020. The Cook Political Report’s demographic polling average estimates Kamala Harris leads Trump by roughly 12 points, an 11-point drop from Biden’s margin.
It’s also telling that Trump’s share of the Hispanic vote has not dropped following Harris’ entry into the race. While Harris is polling about 5 points higher than Biden was when he dropped out, Trump’s 41.9% of Latinos is statistically identical to the 41.8% he was receiving at Biden’s departure.
Even one of the more favorable surveys for Harris shows she’s slipping among Hispanics. A recent Pew Research poll finds her leading Trump 57 to 39 with Hispanics — whereas Biden had been ahead 61 to 36. That’s a 7-point decline in the Democratic margin, not much less than the 11-point decline Cook Political shows.
It’s not hard to see why Hispanics might be growing disaffected with Harris and the Democrats.
Their communities are especially affected by the massive influx of migrants. Most communities where migrants cross are heavily Hispanic, and surely a large number of those caught and released settle in Latino neighborhoods, where the people and language are more familiar.
This means Hispanics more than any other ethnic group likely bear the brunt of the migrants’ disruption. Crime that occurs happens on their streets. The jobs migrants try to get are the same ones many Hispanic citizens also hold and covet.
The rocky economy also affects Latinos more than the upper-class whites who set the Biden administration’s policies. Inflation always ravages the poor and working class first, and Hispanics tend to be poorer and less educated than white Americans.
Unemployment is also up among Hispanics, reaching 5.5% in the most recent jobs report. Stagnant or falling real wages and shrinking job prospects always hurt the incumbent party.
This drop among Latinos could be fatal to Harris’ hopes in Nevada and Arizona.
Hispanics cast a bit less than 20% of the vote in both states in 2020, and their share of the vote should be slightly higher this year.
If the Democratic margin with Latinos dropped by 10 points compared with 2020, Trump would easily win Arizona and nearly wipe out his deficit in Nevada, all else being equal.
The Hispanic vote could prove decisive in Georgia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania, too.
Latinos cast between 5% and 7% of the vote in each state, a share that again should rise slightly this year. A 10-point margin shift in Trump’s direction could be the difference in races expected to be decided by tenths of a point.
Harris is hamstrung in large part by Hispanic voters’ dislike of the Biden administration.
Only 39% approve of Biden’s job performance in the most recent Economist/YouGov poll. This figure drops to 32% when asked about Biden’s immigration record and a mere 30% when assessing his record on fighting crime.
Hence Harris trying to distance herself from her administration’s record on the border and playing up her past as a prosecutor. Both stances are attempts to paint her in a different light, one that moderate Hispanics unhappy with Biden can accept.
Polls show she has made little headway on that score, but there are about five weeks until Election Day. She still has time to redeem herself and recall Hispanics to their traditionally Democratic heritage.
Much rides on this effort. Thus far, Harris has only made notable polling gains among college-educated whites. If that’s still the case by the end of October, she may find her failure to keep core Democratic constituencies in line could be what puts Trump back in the Oval Office.
Henry Olsen, a political analyst and commentator, is a senior fellow at the Ethics and Public Policy Center.
