Eastern Iowa congressional race tightens, forecaster says

Political handicapper Inside Elections, a nonpartisan newsletter covering House, Senate and gubernatorial campaigns, this week changed its forecast in Iowa’s 1st Congressional District race from “Tilt Republican” to “Toss-up.” Other political handicappers rate the race as “lean Republican.”

Democrat Christina Bohannan, a former state lawmaker and University of Iowa law professor, is challenging Republican incumbent U.S. Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks in a rematch from 2022.

Miller-Meeks is running for re-election to a third term to represent the 20-county district that includes Iowa City, Davenport and rural southeast Iowa.

The swing district has a history of close elections, especially in presidential election years. Miller-Meeks won in 2020 by just six votes after months of recounts, defeating Democrat Rita Hart. In 2022, Miller-Meeks defeated Bohannan by 6.7 percentage points, 52.6 to 45.9 percent.

Former president and 2024 Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump won the district in the 2020 presidential race.

“This has quickly become one of the buzziest races on the map,” according to Inside Elections. “Former state Rep. Christina Bohannan is locked in a tight race with Miller-Meeks, whose popularity among Republicans has not recovered from an unexpectedly tough primary against a more MAGA-aligned opponent.”

Miller-Meeks fended off a primary challenge in June, defeating an underfunded candidate with little name recognition outside of the Quad Cities. A passionate right-flank campaign and low turnout helped propel Davenport prayer breakfast organizer David Pautsch to within a surprisingly close 12 points of the GOP incumbent.

The Congressional Leadership Fund is embarking on a $2.3 million rescue mission for the sophomore congresswoman.

Inside Elections also moved Iowa’s 3rd Congressional District race between freshman Republican incumbent Zach Nunn and Democrat Lanon Baccam from “Tilt Republican” to a “Toss Up.”

BOHANNAN AND THE LAW: The Congressional Leadership Fund — House Republicans’ chief super PAC — released an ad last week questioning Iowa 1st Congressional District Democratic nominee Christina Bohannan’s support of law enforcement.

The ad criticizes Bohannan’s for voting against “Back the Blue” legislation while serving in the Iowa House in 2021. The wide-ranging law gives police officers stronger immunity from lawsuits and increases penalties for some protest-related offenses, such as rioting, blocking a roadway and damaging property.

Bohannan and other Democrats argued the bill, targeted at protests in Iowa City and Des Moines after the 2020 murder of George Floyd, goes too far to punish those exercising their First Amendment rights and strips law enforcement and local governments of discretion to respond to protests. Democrats also said the legislation was likely to have a disparate impact on Black Iowans, pointing to nonpartisan state analysis that showed Iowans convicted of rioting are disproportionately Black.

Republicans said the legislation fulfilled a promise they made during the 2020 campaign and adds protections for law enforcement officers after some racial justice protests turned violent.

“When our cops needed her, Christina Bohannan sided with the same radicals destroying our communities,” the TV ad states.

Bohannan’s campaign responded with an ad of its own highlighting endorsements from Iowa law enforcement. The ad features Lee County Sheriff Stacy Weber and Johnson County Sheriff Brad Kunkel, both Democrats.

“We can trust Christina Bohannan to get law enforcement the tools we need to keep our neighborhoods safe, crack down on illegal border crossings, and stop human trafficking,” Kunkel says in the ad.

Bohannan’s campaign also highlighted her votes in the Iowa Legislature to increase penalties for human trafficking, fight the fentanyl crisis and make it easier to prosecute child sex abusers.

“In Congress, she will continue to prioritize public safety and will take action to secure the border,” her campaign said in a statement.

JIM JORDAN BACKS MILLER-MEEKS: House Judiciary Chair Jim Jordan, a Republican from Ohio, on Friday endorsed U.S. Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meek’s re-election in the 1st Congressional District.

Last year, Miller-Meeks stood on the bed of a red truck and defended voting against Jordan, the hard-right chair of the Judiciary Committee, to be the next speaker of the U.S. House — a move she said spawned “credible death threats” against her.

Miller-Meeks voted for Jordan on the first ballot but subsequently voted against him, joining nearly two dozen Republicans who voted against Jordan on his second try at clinching the position. Jordan, cofounder of the ultraconservative House Freedom Caucus, won the majority of Republicans’ support for speaker in a closed-door vote, but could not muster the needed votes to become the speaker.

“Mariannette Miller-Meeks fights for Iowa values everyday against the radical Democrats in Congress,” Jordan said in a statement released by Miller-Meeks’ campaign. “She is working to secure our border, make gas and groceries affordable again, and stop the kowtowing to the Chinese Communist Party. Now, more than ever, we need Republicans like Mariannette to keep and grow the majority in the House.”

Miller-Meeks recently released an ad detailing her support of legislation to cap the price of insulin and make health care more affordable.

The former practicing ophthalmologist and licensed physician was among a dozen Republicans who broke with their party and voted with Democrats to pass a bill that would cap cost-sharing for insulin under both Medicare and private health insurance at $35 for a month’s supply, or 25 percent of a plan’s negotiated price, whichever is less. The bill passed the House largely along party lines, but stalled in the Senate.

Miller-Meeks, however, voted against the Inflation Induction Act signed into law by President Joe Biden in 2022. The wide-ranging law included hundreds of billions of dollars in new spending and tax breaks that aim to boost clean energy, reduce health care costs and increase tax revenues. It included provisions capping out-of-pocket insulin costs for seniors at $35 per month and allowed the government to negotiate lower Medicare drug costs.

Bohannan and the campaign arm of House Democrats have attacked Miller-Meeks for taking thousands from insulin manufacturer Eli Lilly and other pharmaceutical companies and voting against the Inflation Reduction Act and its insulin cap.