Americans saw two U.S. vice presidential hopefuls go head to head in a debate Tuesday night one month before the presidential election and the polls are heated.
Ohio Sen. JD Vance, and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz faced off on the debate stage last night, laying out their pitches to voters across the country in the final stretch of the 2024 election.
The pair debated several key issues including America’s role in crises in the Middle East and how the nation should address issues like immigration, inflation and abortion rights. They also explained how they would try to lower housing prices and reduce gun violence in schools if elected.
Vice presidential candidates and their debates don’t usually move the political needle much. But Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump’s refusal to debate Democratic rival Kamala Harris again made the Vance-Walz showdown likely the final time the two campaigns battle each other on the same stage before a nationally televised audience. With thin margins in the polls, every moment counts.
So, who will be the 47th president of the United States? Will Americans vote to put Trump back in the White House? Or will Harris become the first female president?
Here is what the polls, odds and a historian have said over the past five weeks as we head into Election Day on Tuesday, Nov. 5.
Who is winning the presidential election?
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ABC News project 538 shows Harris leading in the national polls 48.6% to Trump 45.9% compared to Harris 48.3% to Trump 45.6% last week, compared to Harris 48.3% to Trump 45.3% two weeks ago, compared to Harris 47.1% to Trump 44.4% three weeks ago, compared to Harris 47.1% to Trump at 43.9% four weeks ago, or compared to Harris 47.0% to Trump at 43.7% five weeks ago.
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270towin shows Harris leading the national polls by 3.8% over Trump compared to Harris over Trump by 3% last week, compared to Harris 2.5% over Trump two weeks ago, compared to Harris 0.9% over Trump three weeks ago, compared to Harris 2.7% over Trump to four weeks ago, or compared to Harris 1.9% over Trump five weeks ago.
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realclearpolling shows the betting odds are in Harris’ favor with a spread of +2.0 over Trump compared to Harris favor of +2.3 over Trump last week, compared to Harris +2.0 over Trump two weeks ago, compared to Harris +1.1 over Trump three weeks ago, compared to Harris +1.8 over Trump four weeks ago, and compared to Harris +1.7 over Trump five weeks ago.
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Polymarket, a crypto-trading platform is expressing odds by the betting public, in favor of Harris over Trump by 1% compared to Harris over Trump by 3% last week, compared to Harris over Trump by 2% two weeks ago, compared to Harris over Trump by 1% three weeks ago or compared to Trump over Harris by 4% four weeks ago or compared to Harris leading by 1% point over Trump five weeks ago.
Polls and odds are constantly changing. These numbers were reflected as of Wednesday, Oct. 2, 2024, at 9:16 a.m.
What did Allan Lichtman predict for the presidential election of 2024?
Presidential historian Allan Lichtman, 77, is a distinguished professor of history at American University and lives in Bethesda, Maryland.
The presidential historian has predicted that Vice President Kamala Harris will win the 2024 presidential election over former President Donald Trump. He claims to use a set of 13 “keys” to make his picks, which range from economic indicators to candidates’ charisma.
Lichtman has correctly predicted the outcome of almost every election over the last half-century, except for the race in 2000, in which Republican George W. Bush defeated Democrat Al Gore.
How accurate have election odds or polls been in past presidential elections?
The betting favorite has only lost twice since 1866, according to the Conversation, a nonprofit news organization.
The track record on polling is more challenging as different pollsters asking different varieties of the population can often draw higher margins for error.
According to Pew Research, confidence in the public’s opinion polling has suffered given the errors in the presidential elections of 2016 and 2020.
In both of these general elections, many polls underestimated the strength of the Republican candidates, including Donald Trump.
This article originally appeared on Oklahoman: Who’s winning the presidential election? Polls after VP debate
