Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
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2025 Oscars Predictions:
Best Documentary Feature
Netflix
Weekly Commentary (Updated Oct 14, 2024): The race for best documentary feature is always full of surprises, and this year, no single nonfiction film has yet emerged as “the one to beat.”
Let’s not forget we’re dealing with the Documentary Branch — the always famously unpredictable and never without a few painful snubs. This is the same group that has shocked us by overlooking favorites like “Apollo 11,” “Jane,” “Three Identical Strangers,” and “American Symphony.”
One interesting piece of trivia to remember: Since 2000, only two filmmakers who’ve won Best Documentary Feature have managed to score another nomination after their victory. Michael Moore won for 2002’s “Bowling for Columbine” and was later nominated for 2007’s “Sicko.” Similarly, Laura Poitras won for 2014’s “Citizenfour” and received another nod for 2022’s “All the Beauty and the Bloodshed.” It’s surprising how many previous winners have been omitted since, including big names like Davis Guggenheim (“Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie”), Alex Gibney (“Going Clear: Scientology and the Prison of Belief,” “Totally Under Control”), and Morgan Neville (“Won’t You Be My Neighbor?”). Could this frustrating trend continue, or will this year break the mold?
Neville is back in the running with his animated biopic “Piece by Piece,” which chronicles the life of Pharrell Williams. But will the Branch embrace re-creations of pivotal moments in Pharrell’s life? Given their history of ignoring innovative work like 2021’s “The Rescue” (which was directed by “Free Solo” winners Elizabeth Chai Vasarhelyi and Jimmy Chin), there’s always a chance they might pass it over. The good thing is the film is also vying for animated feature and original song, which could prevent a total shutout.
On a more optimistic note, the branch has recently seen a significant boost in international members, which could open doors for non-U.S. productions. Thanks to this broadened voter base, films like Shiori Itô’s powerful “Black Box Diaries” and Mati Diop’s “Dahomey” — which is also Senegal’s official submission for International Feature — might have a better shot.
As the awards season progresses, National Geographic’s “Sugarcane” is already off to a strong start, leading the Critics Choice Documentary Awards with eight nominations. Joining the critically acclaimed film by Julian Brave NoiseCat and Emily Kassie are contenders like “Billy & Molly: An Otter Love Story,” “Daughters,” “The Greatest Night in Pop,” “Jim Henson: Idea Man,” “Music by John Williams,” “Piece by Piece,” “The Remarkable Life of Ibelin,” “Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story,” and “Will & Harper.”
Netflix is in a strong position with several top contenders. Among its significant hopefuls is the Sundance award winner “Daughters,” which is at the forefront of the race (at the moment). The platform also has titles like “Skywalkers: A Love Story” and “The Remarkable Life of Ibelin,” making it a formidable force in this year’s race.
It’s always worth remembering that no documentary has ever been nominated for best picture — though “Chang” was nominated in the now-defunct “Unique and Artistic Production” category at the 1927/28 Oscars. Perhaps it’s time to consider expanding the voting pool for this category to include other branches. It could be the key to seeing a nonfiction film finally make it into the race for the Academy’s top prize. It’s well past due.
Read: You can see all Academy Award predictions in all 23 categories on one page on the Variety Awards Circuit: Oscars.
The 97th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 2. The full rankings are below. All movie listings, titles, and distributors are not final and are subject to change.
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Image Credit: Netflix And the Predicted Nominees Are
Rank Performer & Film 1 “Daughters” (Netflix) — Angela Patton, Natalie Rae 2 “Sugarcane” (National Geographic Documentary Films) — Julian Brave NoiseCat, Emily Kassie 3 “Black Box Diaries” (MTV Documentary Films) — Shiori Itô 4 “Dahomey” (Mubi) — Mati Diop, Judith Lou Lévy, Eve Robin 5 “No Other Land” (ImmerGuteFilme) — Yuval Abraham, Basel Adra, Hamdan Ballal, Rachel Szor, Fabien Greenberg, Bård Kjøge Rønning Oscars: Best Documentary Feature (Variety Awards Circuit Predictions) -
Image Credit: Nick Dale Next in Line
Rank Performer & Film 6 “The Commandant’s Shadow” (HBO Documentary Films) — Daniela Völker 7 “Ernest Cole: Lost and Found” (Magnolia Pictures) — Raoul Peck 8 “Separated” (Submarine Deluxe) — Errol Morris 9 “Will & Harper” (Netflix) — Josh Greenbaum 10 “Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story” (Warner Bros.) — Ian Bonhôte, Peter Ettedgui Oscars: Best Documentary Feature (Variety Awards Circuit Predictions) -
Image Credit: Courtesy Front Row Other Contenders
Rank Performer & Film 11 “Bread and Roses” (Apple Original Films) 12 “Hollywoodgate” (Fourth Act Film) 13 “Porcelain War” (Picturehouse) 14 “Who’s Afraid of Nathan Law?” (POV) 15 “Music by John Williams” (Walt Disney Pictures) 16 “Piece by Piece” (Focus Features) 17 “Copa 71” (Greenwich) 18 “Frida” (Amazon MGM) 19 “In Waves and War” (No U.S. Distribution) 20 “Jim Henson Idea Man” (Disney+) Oscars: Best Documentary Feature (Variety Awards Circuit Predictions) -
Eligible Titles (Best Documentary Feature)
Image Credit: courtesy Image ** This list is incomplete and not yet finalized. Not all films have distribution or release dates. All are subject to change.
- “After the Rain: Putin’s Stolen Children Come Home” (No U.S. Distribution)
- “America’s Burning” (Abramorama)
- “Apocalypse in the Tropics” (No U.S. Distribution)
- “Bad Faith” (Self-Distributed)
- “Bad River” (50 Eggs Films)
- “Billy & Molly: An Otter Love Story” (National Geographic)
- “Black Box Diaries” (MTV Documentary Films)
- “Blink” (National Geographic)
- “The Blue Angels” (Amazon MGM Studios)
- “Bread and Roses” (Apple Original Films)
- “Carville: Winning is Everything, Stupid!” (CNN Films)
- “¡Casa Bonita Mi Amor!” (MTV Documentary Films)
- “Catching Fire: The Story of Anita Pallenberg” (Magnolia Pictures)
- “The Commandant’s Shadow” (HBO Documentary Films)
- “Copa 71” (Greenwich)
- “Dahomey” (Mubi)
- “Daughters” (Netflix)
- “Elton John: Never Too Late” (Walt Disney Pictures)
- “Eno” (No U.S. Distribution)
- “Ernest Cole: Lost and Found” (Magnolia Pictures)
- “Frida” (Amazon MGM)
- “Gaucho Gaucho” (No U.S. Distribution)
- “Girls State” (Apple TV+)
- “The Grab” (Magnolia Pictures)
- “The Greatest Night in Pop” (Netflix)
- “Hollywoodgate” (Fourth Act Film)
- “I Am Celine Dion” (Amazon MGM)
- “In Waves and War” (No U.S. Distribution)
- “Invisible Nation” (Abramorama)
- “Jim Henson Idea Man” (Disney+)
- “The Last of the Sea Women” (Apple Original Films)
- “Look Into My Eyes” (A24)
- “Luther: Never Too Much” (Giant)
- “Made in England: The Films of Powell & Pressburger” (Cohen Media Group)
- “Majority Rules” (Abramorama)
- “Maya and the Wave” (No U.S. Distribution)
- “Mountain Queen: The Summits of Lhakpa Sherpa” (Netflix)
- “Music by John Williams” (Walt Disney Pictures)
- “A New Kind of Wilderness” (No U.S. Distribution)
- “No One Asked You” (Ruthless)
- “No Other Land” (ImmerGuteFilme)
- “Patrice: The Movie” (ABC News/Hulu)
- “Piece by Piece” (Focus Features)
- “Porcelain War” (Picturehouse)
- “Power” (Netflix)
- “Riefenstahl” (No U.S. Distribution)
- “The Remarkable Life of Ibelin” (Netflix)
- “Road Diary: Bruce Springsteen and The E Street Band” (Hulu)
- “Seeking Mavis Beacon” (Neon)
- “Separated” (Submarine Deluxe)
- “Skywalkers: A Love Story” (Netflix)
- “Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat” (Kino Lorber)
- “State of Silence” (Netflix)
- “Sugarcane” (National Geographic)
- “Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story” (Warner Bros.)
- “2073” (Neon)
- “Union” (Level Ground)
- “War Game” (Submarine Deluxe)
- “The White House Effect” (No U.S. Distribution)
- “Who’s Afraid of Nathan Law?” (POV)
- “Will & Harper” (Netflix)
- “Zurawski v. Texas” (No U.S. Distribution)
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More Information (Oscars: Best Documentary Feature)
Image Credit: Rich Polk for Variety 2024 category winner: “20 Days in Mariupol” (PBS) — Mstyslav Chernov, Michelle Mizner and Raney Aronson-Rath
2024-2025 Oscars Calendar and Timeline – Full awards season calendar here
- Eligibility period: Jan. 1, 2024 – Dec. 31, 2024
- General entry, best picture, RAISE submission deadline: Thursday, Nov. 14, 2024
- Governors Awards: Sunday, Nov. 17, 2024
- Preliminary voting begins Monday, Dec. 9, 2024, at 9 a.m. PT.
- Preliminary voting ends Friday, Dec. 13, 2024, at 5 p.m. PT.
- Oscar Shortlists Announcement: Tuesday, Dec. 17, 2024
- Eligibility period ends: Tuesday, Dec. 31, 2024
- Nominations voting begins Wednesday, Jan. 8, 2025, at 9 a.m. PT.
- Nominations voting ends Sunday, Jan. 12, 2025, at 5 p.m. PT.
- Oscar Nominations Announcement: Friday, Jan. 17, 2025
- Oscar Nominees Luncheon: Monday, Feb. 10, 2025
- Final voting begins Tuesday, Feb. 11, 2025, at 9 a.m. PT
- Final voting ends: Tuesday, Feb. 18, 2025, at 5 p.m. PT
- Scientific and Technical Awards: Tuesday, Feb. 18, 2025
- 97th Oscars: Sunday, March 2, 2025
Oscars Prediction Categories
2024 Oscar Predictions (Variety Awards Circuit) About the Academy Awards
The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Seventeen branches are represented within the nearly 10,000-person membership. The branches are actors, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films and feature animation, sound, visual effects and writers.
