Election Day countdown is just 21 days away. The campaigns are in high gear as the race is changing according to the last seven weeks worth of polls and odds.
The presidential candidates, their vice-presidential running mates and even spouses have taken the approach to divide and conquer in campaigning across the country.
The political climate over the last couple of months has made history and headlines ahead of this race:
So the big question looms: “Who will be the 47th president of the United States?”
Here is what the polls, odds and a historian have said over the past seven weeks — and how they have changed — as we head into Election Day on Tuesday, Nov. 5.
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Who is leading in the polls and favored by the odds?
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ABC News project 538 shows Harris leading in the national polls 48.5% over Trump 46.1% compared to last week Harris was 48% over Trump 47.3% compared to Harris 48.5% over Trump 45.8% two weeks ago, compared to Harris 48.3% over Trump 45.6% three weeks ago, compared to Harris 48.3% over Trump 45.3% four weeks ago, compared to Harris 47.1% over Trump 44.4% five weeks ago, compared to Harris 47.1% over Trump at 43.9% six weeks ago, or compared to Harris 47.0% over Trump at 43.7% seven weeks ago.
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270towin shows Harris leading the national polls by 2.5% over Trump compared to last week’s lead of 2.8% over Trump, compared to Harris 3.7% over Trump two weeks ago, compared to Harris over Trump by 3% three weeks ago, compared to Harris 2.5% over Trump four weeks ago, compared to Harris 0.9% over Trump five weeks ago, compared to Harris 2.7% over Trump to six weeks ago, or compared to Harris 1.9% over Trump seven weeks ago.
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realclearpolling shows the betting odds in Harris favor by +1.7 compared to a tie between Harris and Trump last week, compared to Harris favored with a spread of +1.8 over Trump two weeks ago, compared to Harris favor of +2.3 over Trump three weeks ago, compared to Harris +2.0 over Trump four weeks ago, compared to Harris +1.1 over Trump five weeks ago, compared to Harris +1.8 over Trump six weeks ago, and compared to Harris +1.7 over Trump seven weeks ago.
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Polymarket, a crypto-trading platform is expressing odds by the betting public, in favor of Trump with 56.3% chance over Harris 43.1% chance, compared to last week’s Trump 52.8% over Harris 46.7%, compared with Harris favored over Trump by 2% two weeks ago, compared to Harris over Trump by 3% three weeks ago, compared to Harris over Trump by 2% four weeks ago, compared to Harris over Trump by 1% five weeks ago or compared to Trump over Harris by 4% six weeks ago or compared to Harris leading by 1% point over Trump seven weeks ago.
Polls and odds are constantly changing. These numbers were reflected as of Tuesday, Oct. 15, 2024, at 9 a.m.
What did Allan Lichtman predict for the presidential election of 2024?
Presidential historian Allan Lichtman, 77, is a distinguished professor of history at American University and lives in Bethesda, Maryland.
The presidential historian has predicted that Vice President Kamala Harris will win the 2024 presidential election over former President Donald Trump. He claims to use a set of 13 “keys” to make his picks, which range from economic indicators to candidates’ charisma.
Lichtman has correctly predicted the outcome of almost every election over the last half-century, except for the race in 2000, in which Republican George W. Bush defeated Democrat Al Gore.
How accurate have election odds or polls been in past presidential elections?
The betting favorite has only lost twice since 1866, according to the Conversation, a nonprofit news organization.
The track record on polling is more challenging as different pollsters asking different audiences can often draw higher margins for error.
According to Pew Research, confidence in the public opinion polling has suffered given the errors in the presidential elections of 2016 and 2020.
In both of these general elections, many polls underestimated the appeal of Republican Donald Trump.
This article originally appeared on NorthJersey.com: Who is winning presidential election? What the Harris Trump polls say
