Arizona remains a key battleground state in either candidate’s path to the White House this election year.
Arizona has 11 electoral college votes, placing it in a tie for 14th-most votes among states. Just a few weeks ahead of the 2024 presidential election, the voting intention of Arizonans continues to be among the most politically polarized in the nation, making those 11 votes crucial to secure a victory for either Democrat Kamala Harris or Republican Donald Trump.
As a result, more candidate visits are scheduled as the Nov. 5 date approaches. Political ads and texts are likely to reach new levels as the campaign for Arizonans’ votes continues.
Here is what the polls, odds and historians are saying as we head into Election Day on Tuesday, Nov. 5.
Who is leading in the polls in the US?
Polls and odds are constantly changing, but here’s where each candidate stood as of 3 p.m. on Oct. 17, 2024:
- ABC News project 538 shows Harris leading in the national polls at 48.5% to Trump at 46.1%. In the past, Harris has led Trump by as many as 4 percentage posts, though more recent polls show them much closer.
- 270towin shows Harris leading the national polls by 2.2% over Trump.
- Realclearpolling shows the betting odds are in Harris’ favor with a spread of +1.5 over Trump.
Arizona:Is it swing state in the 2024 presidential election? Here’s what to know
Who is leading the polls in Arizona?
Former President Donald Trump had a slight lead over Vice President Kamala Harris in most Arizona polls released in the last week, but surveys show that the race is still a drawn battle in the state.
- ABC News project 538 shows Trump leading Harris in Arizona polls by 1.6% over Harris.
- 270towin shows Trump leading the Arizona polls by 1.7% over Harris.
- Realclearpolling shows that the betting odds to win Arizona are in Trump’s favor, with a spread of +1.4 over Harris.
Historian who has predicted 9 of 10 elections weighs in
Allan Lichtman is a distinguished professor of history at the American University in Washington, D.C. He earned a doctorate from Harvard, specializing in modern American history and quantitative methods.
He has correctly predicted the outcome of nine out of the past 10 presidential elections and has confirmed his prediction on which candidate will reclaim the White House.
This year, he predicts Vice President Kamala Harris will win.
How accurate have election odds or polls been in past presidential elections?
The betting favorite has only lost twice since 1866, according to the Conversation, a nonprofit news organization.
The track record on polling is more challenging as different pollsters asking different varieties of the population can often draw higher margins for error.
According to Pew Research, confidence in the public’s opinion polling has suffered, given the errors in the presidential elections of 2016 and 2020.
In both of these general elections, many polls underestimated the strength of the Republican candidates, including Donald Trump.
Arizona Republic reporters Stephanie Murray and Zach Bradshaw and USA TODAY Network reporter Maria Francis contributed to this article.
