If you were waiting for Donald Trump’s odds to drop before placing a bet, you might want to place those bets soon. Because the former president continues to gain momentum in the race to become president, at least according to betting odds.
According to Realclearpolling, Trump now has a 61.1 percent chance to win the election, based off bets placed on eight betting sites. His opponent, Kamala Harris comes in at 37.5 percent chance to win.
For Harris, it’s bleak across the board on betting odds.
BetOnline has the odds at 63-36 in favor of the former president. Betfair has it 58-37. Betsson, Bwin and Points Bets have it 60-40. Bovada has it 64-36, Polymarket has it 63-32 and Smarkts has it 58-38. All markets have Trump as the favorite.
Polls are much tighter than betting odds and there is a reason for that. Betting markets make their money on the juice, so ideally bookmakers would like to have even money bet on both sides. So far, that hasn’t been the case.
And the market is wonky based off one person who bet $45 million on Trump to win the election. According to Polymarket, the bets came from France. A bet like that would change the market, so Trump’s odds, and therefore payout, changed drastically.
Polls have it much closer, although Trump leads there too.
Trump and Harris are neck-and-neck in national polls. Trump leads Harris by 0.1 percentage points in Real Clear Politics’ average of national polls, well within the margin of error of each survey included.
It’s also a tight race in battleground states across the country. For example, according to Real Clear Politics’ average of polls in Michigan, Trump leads by just 0.2 percentage points.
– Marina Pitofsky
It is not clear exactly when the election results will be announced, as the timing depends on a variety of factors. Each state handles its elections differently, ranging from weeks-long early voting to strict voter ID laws.
But you can anticipate delays.
Some key swing states that Trump and Harris are vying for, like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, aren’t permitted to start processing absentee and mail-in ballots until Election Day, which is expected to slow down the count.
– Sudiksha Kochi and Sam Woodward
There are just eight days until Election Day on Tuesday, Nov. 5.
– Sam Woodward
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Donald Trump: -188
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Kamala Harris: +150
