It is officially election month, and presidential election polls indicate former President Donald Trump could be edging ahead of Vice President Kamala Harris among national voters.
While the national polls give a temperature check of the electorate, the Electoral College system means that the race is likely to be decided by seven battleground states. An exclusive USA TODAY/Suffolk poll out Friday shows Harris and Trump are tied in Pennsylvania, the swing state with the most electoral votes.
Trump is visiting two other “blue wall” states Friday with rallies scheduled in Wisconsin and Michigan. Harris is also planning to visit Wisconsin.
Here is what to know about where the race stands.
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Trump leads Harris by 2% in new AtlasIntel poll
Trump leads Harris by two percentage points in a new national poll from AtlasIntel released Thursday afternoon.
The survey of 3,490 likely voters from across the U.S. showed Trump leading Harris 49.1% to 47.2% with a margin of error of two percentage points. When asked to choose between the candidates in a race without third-party options, 49.6% of respondents said they would vote for Trump, and 48.2% said they would vote for Harris.
The poll was conducted on Wednesday and Thursday. More polls from AtlasIntel are expected before Election Day.
📊ATLAS POLL – U.S. PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS
Trump maintains a 1.9% lead in the national popular vote, while Kamala Harris’s support numbers have remained virtually unchanged since her candidacy was made official.
🔴 Trump: 49.1%
🔵 Harris: 47.2%
⚪ Other/Undecided: 3.7% pic.twitter.com/5Z0yuACSrZ— AtlasIntel (@atlas_intel) October 31, 2024
Trump gains a narrow lead in latest TIPP poll
The TIPP Tracking Poll shows Trump moved into the lead by one percentage point Friday after being tied with Harris on Thursday.
The latest survey of 1,249 likely voters showed Trump leading Harris 49% to 48%. Conducted Tuesday through Thursday, the poll had a margin of error of 2.7 percentage points.
“(The poll) shows a tight and steady race, each candidate setting up for a smooth, close landing,” TIPP stated. The pollsters expect the numbers to hover between Harris +1 and Trump +2 for the final days ahead of the election.
Things to keep in mind about polling
The margin of error describes how accurately we can count on the survey results being representative of the entire population.
When a candidate’s lead is “inside” the margin of error, it is considered a “statistical tie,” according to Pew Research Center.
Pew has also found the majority of pollsters have changed their methods since the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, where Trump’s performance was significantly underestimated.
Kinsey Crowley is a trending news reporter at USA TODAY. Reach her at [email protected], and follow her on X and TikTok @kinseycrowley.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Presidential election polls 2024: Latest surveys on Harris vs. Trump
